全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：柳龙生 签发：向纯怡 2025 年 02 月 25 日 18 时
“艾弗雷德”将原地少动
时 间：25日14时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“艾弗雷德”，ALFRED
中心位置：南纬14.3度、东经154.6度
强度等级：二级热带气旋
最大风力：10级（28米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）
中心气压：981百帕
参考位置：澳大利亚昆士兰州布里斯班偏北方向约1470公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“艾弗雷德”由12级减弱到10级
预报结论：“艾弗雷德”将原地少动，强度逐渐增强。

图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年02月25日14时00分）

TPPS12 PGTW 250842
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED)
B. 25/0830Z
C. 14.10S
D. 154.67E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T4.0/4.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.0 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET YIELDS A 4.0. PT AGREES WITH MET. DBO
PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
25/0308Z 14.23S 154.52E ATMS
PETERSEN

眼区呢？

还是一副切崩样

没错，就是崩了

这么耐切

动作这么快

TXPS22 KNES 251226
TCSWSP
A. 18P (ALFRED)
B. 25/1130Z
C. 14.3S
D. 155.2E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F. T3.5/4.5
G. IR/EIR/PRXY/SSMIS/GMI
H. REMARKS...SUITE OF MW DATA SHOWED AN EXPOSED CENTER EAST OF ACTIVE
DEEP CONVECTION. AT 1130Z, CENTER IS 1/3 INTO THE COLD OVERCAST RESULTING
IN A DT OF 3.5 USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. THE MET AND PT ARE ALSO 3.5. THE
FT IS BASED ON THE MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER LOCATION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
25/0548Z 14.2S 154.6E SSMIS
25/0833Z 14.3S 154.8E SSMIS
25/0934Z 14.3S 155.0E GMI
...TURK

风切不给机会

SH, 18, 2025022512, , BEST, 0, 143S, 1551E, 80, 975, TY, 34, NEQ, 70, 50, 55, 50, 1006, 300, 10, 0, 0, P, 0, , 0, 0, ALFRED, ,
SH, 18, 2025022512, , BEST, 0, 143S, 1551E, 80, 975, TY, 50, NEQ, 35, 30, 30, 25, 1006, 300, 10, 0, 0, P, 0, , 0, 0, ALFRED, ,
SH, 18, 2025022512, , BEST, 0, 143S, 1551E, 80, 975, TY, 64, NEQ, 0, 10, 10, 0, 1006, 300, 10, 0, 0, P, 0, , 0, 0, ALFRED, ,

IDQ20065
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 10:41 pm EST on Tuesday 25 February 2025
At 10 pm AEST Tuesday, Tropical Cyclone Alfred (Category 2) with central
pressure 985 hPa was located
over the Coral Sea near latitude 14.3 south longitude 155.0 east, which is
about 980 km northeast of Mackay and 1030 km east northeast of Townsville.
The cyclone is slow moving.
Alfred is currently slow moving, but is forecast to begin moving in a general
southwards movement from Thursday.
There is high confidence that Alfred will remain well off the Queensland coast
until at least late in the week. Beyond that, the track becomes highly
uncertain and there is a risk it will move closer to the central Queensland
coast over the weekend.
The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 5:00 am AEST Wednesday 26
February.

TPPS12 PGTW 251238
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED)
B. 25/1130Z
C. 14.13S
D. 155.10E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T4.0/4.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN DG YIELDS A
DT OF 4.0. BOTH MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
25/0745Z 14.18S 154.95E SSMS
25/0831Z 14.25S 154.85E SSMS
25/0933Z 14.25S 154.98E GPMI
LINDGREN

ACE: 4.4975