全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：宋佳凝 签发：向纯怡 2025 年 02 月 24 日 18 时
“艾弗雷德”向东南方向移动
时 间：24日14时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“艾弗雷德”，ALFRED
中心位置：南纬13.6度、东经154.2度
强度等级：二级热带气旋
最大风力：11级（30米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）
中心气压：991百帕
参考位置：澳大利亚昆士兰州布里斯班偏北方向约1550公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“艾弗雷德”强度维持不变
预报结论：“艾弗雷德”将以每小时15公里左右的速度向东南方向移动，强度逐渐增强。

图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年02月24日14时00分）

入夜，在风切中卷绕

TPPS12 PGTW 241210
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED)
B. 24/1130Z
C. 14.09S
D. 154.31E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN B YIELDS A DT
OF 5.0. MET YIELDS 4.5. PT YIELDS 4.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
RAE

TXPS22 KNES 241214
TCSWSP
A. 18P (ALFRED)
B. 24/1130Z
C. 14.0S
D. 154.6E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F. T3.5/3.5
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/PRXY/GMI
H. REMARKS...GMI DATA SUGGESTED A PARTIAL EYEWALL HAD FORMED THAT WAS
OPEN ON THE EAST SIDE. 8/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT
ARE 3.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET BECAUSE BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT
CLEAR CUT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
24/1016Z 13.9S 154.5E GMI
...TURK

IDQ20065
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 10:44 pm EST on Monday 24 February 2025
At 10 pm AEST Monday, Tropical Cyclone Alfred (Category 1) with central
pressure 990 hPa was located
over the Coral Sea
near latitude 14.0 south longitude 154.6 east, which is about 560 km east
northeast of Willis Island and 980 km northeast of Mackay.
The cyclone is slow moving.
Tropical Cyclone Alfred is forecast to intensify as it moves slowly eastwards
in the Coral Sea, well offshore of the north Queensland coast.
On Tuesday, Alfred is forecast to turn southeast and then south while
continuing to intensify through to the middle of the week. There is high
confidence that Alfred will remain well off the Queensland coast until at least
late in the week. Beyond that, the track becomes highly uncertain and there is
a risk it will move closer to the central Queensland coast over the weekend.
The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 5:00 am AEST Tuesday 25
February.

18P ALFRED 250224 1200 13.8S 154.5E SHEM 65 985

ASCAT只有40-45节，所以BoM降45kt
ASCAT pass shows some 40 to 45 knot winds in western and northern quadrants and gales
in all quadrants. System structure based on ASCAT pass at 1039 UTC, with good
confidence.

十分猛烈的锯齿

有那味了