挨切了，后期预报暂时也没有风切好转的迹象，强度能到哪就是哪吧

TPPS12 PGTW 240557
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED)
B. 24/0530Z
C. 14.10S
D. 153.96E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. IRREGULAR CDO OF 158NM IN DIAMETER
YIELDS A CF OF 3.0. ADDED 1.0 FOR BF TO YIELD A DT OF 4.0. MET
YIELDS A 4.5. PT AGREES WITH DT. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
PETERSEN

TXPS22 KNES 240630
TCSWSP
A. 18P (ALFRED)
B. 24/0530Z
C. 14.2S
D. 154.2E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F. T3.5/3.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...8/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. THE MET IS 3.0 BASED ON
A 24HR RAPID DEVELOPING TREND. THE PT IS 3.5 THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...GATLING

IDQ20065
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 4:44 pm EST on Monday 24 February 2025
At 4 pm AEST Monday, Tropical Cyclone Alfred (Category 2) with central pressure
989 hPa was located
over the Coral Sea
near latitude 14.0 south longitude 154.3 east, which is about 530 km east
northeast of Willis Island and 960 km northeast of Mackay.
The cyclone is slow moving.
Tropical Cyclone Alfred is strengthening as it moves slowly eastwards in the
Coral Sea, well offshore of the north Queensland coast.
On Tuesday, Alfred is forecast to turn southeast and then south while
continuing to intensify through to the middle of the week. There is high
confidence that Alfred will remain well off the Queensland coast until at least
late in the week. Beyond that, the track becomes highly uncertain and there is
a risk it will move closer to the central Queensland coast over the weekend.
The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 11:00 pm AEST Monday 24
February.

18P ALFRED 250224 0600 13.6S 154.2E SHEM 60 986

一些新对流

形态略有转好，即将入夜

切崩

比较明显的锯齿

TPPS12 PGTW 240850
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED)
B. 24/0830Z
C. 13.50S
D. 154.11E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38B/PBO UNDEFINED FIX CODE. LLCC EMBEDDED IN LG YIELDS
A DT OF 4.5. MET AGREES. PT YIELDS A 4.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
24/0328Z 13.77S 154.15E AMS2
24/0353Z 14.18S 154.55E ATMS
PETERSEN