TPPS12 PGTW 241505
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED)
B. 24/1430Z
C. 14.20S
D. 154.65E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN B YIELDS A DT
OF 5.0. MET AND PT YIELD 4.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
RAE

TPPS12 PGTW 241843
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED)
B. 24/1730Z
C. 14.18S
D. 154.58E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T4.0/4.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .90 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET YIELDS 3.5. PT YIELDS 4.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
TIMMERMAN

18P ALFRED 250224 1800 14.4S 154.7E SHEM 60 987

NAME: TROPICAL CYCLONE ALFRED
IDENTIFIER: 22U
DATA AT: 1800 UTC
LATITUDE: 14.2S
LONGITUDE: 154.8E
LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 30NM (55 KM)
MOVEMENT TOWARDS: SOUTHEAST (136 DEG)
SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 3 KNOTS (5 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 50 KNOTS (95 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 70 KNOTS (130 KM/H)
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
FORECAST DATA
DATE/TIME : LOCATION : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND : CENTRAL
PRESSURE
(UTC) : DEGREES : NM (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA
+06: 25/0000: 14.5S 155.0E: 040 (080): 055 (100): 985
+12: 25/0600: 14.7S 155.2E: 050 (095): 055 (100): 985
+18: 25/1200: 15.0S 155.3E: 060 (110): 060 (110): 981
+24: 25/1800: 15.3S 155.5E: 065 (120): 065 (120): 978
+36: 26/0600: 16.1S 155.7E: 085 (155): 070 (130): 974
+48: 26/1800: 17.0S 155.9E: 095 (175): 075 (140): 970
+60: 27/0600: 17.8S 156.1E: 115 (210): 075 (140): 970
+72: 27/1800: 18.6S 156.4E: 125 (235): 080 (150): 962
+96: 28/1800: 20.2S 156.7E: 175 (325): 065 (120): 974
+120: 01/1800: 21.4S 155.7E: 205 (380): 055 (100): 981

TXPS22 KNES 241814
TCSWSP
A. 18P (ALFRED)
B. 24/1730Z
C. 14.5S
D. 154.8E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F. T4.0/4.0
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/ATMS
H. REMARKS...CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN B RESULTING IN A DT OF 5.0. MET IS
4.0 BASED ON A RAPID DEVELOPMENT TREND. PT IS ALSO 4.0. THE FT IS BASED
ON THE MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER LOCATION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
24/1503Z 14.4S 154.6E ATMS
...TURK

TPPS12 PGTW 242120
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED)
B. 24/2030Z
C. 14.20S
D. 154.29E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T4.0/4.5/D2.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN LG YIELDS A
DT OF 4.5. MET AND PT YIELD 4.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
24/1524Z 13.70S 154.37E ATMS
24/1709Z 14.12S 154.47E SSMS
DESSINO

3个中最先获编的目前最弱发展最慢

TXPS22 KNES 242353
TCSWSP
A. 18P (ALFRED)
B. 24/2330Z
C. 14.2S
D. 154.0E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F. T4.5/4.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN LG RESULTING IN A DT OF 4.5. MET
AND PT = 4.5 THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION
OF LOW LEVEL CENTER.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...KIBLER

步入正轨了

TPPS12 PGTW 250016
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED)
B. 24/2330Z
C. 14.54S
D. 154.21E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T4.0/4.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN MG YIELDS A
DT OF 4.0. MET YIELDS 3.5. PT YIELDS 4.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
DESSINO

SH, 18, 2025022500, , BEST, 0, 147S, 1546E, 65, 984, TY,

IDQ20065
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 10:47 am EST on Tuesday 25 February 2025
At 10 am AEST Tuesday, Tropical Cyclone Alfred (Category 2) with central
pressure 985 hPa was located
over the Coral Sea
near latitude 14.3 south longitude 154.6 east, which is about 950 km northeast
of Mackay and 1000 km east northeast of Townsville.
The cyclone is slow moving.
Tropical Cyclone Alfred is forecast to intensify as it moves southeast through
the northern Coral Sea today, well offshore of the north Queensland coast.
Alfred is forecast to turn towards the south later today while continuing to
intensify. There is high confidence that Alfred will remain well off the
Queensland coast until at least late in the week. Beyond that, the track
becomes highly uncertain and there is a risk it will move closer to the central
Queensland coast over the weekend.
The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 5:00 pm AEST Tuesday 25
February.

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：柳龙生 签发：向纯怡 2025 年 02 月 25 日 10 时
“艾弗雷德”向南偏东方向移动
时 间：25日08时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“艾弗雷德”，ALFRED
中心位置：南纬14.3度、东经154.6度
强度等级：二级热带气旋
最大风力：10级（28米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）
中心气压：985百帕
参考位置：澳大利亚昆士兰州布里斯班偏北方向约1470公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“艾弗雷德”由11级减弱到10级
预报结论：“艾弗雷德”将以每小时10-15公里的速度向南偏东方向移动，强度逐渐增强。

图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年02月25日08时00分）