南太正在追赶ACE平均值

整层对流抬升。

THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED BELOW ALONGSIDE
281146Z METOP-C ASCAT WIND SPEED DATA SUPPORTING THE INTENSITY AND
WIND RADII.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS
ABRF: T5.5 - 102 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 102 KTS AT 281300Z
CIMSS ADT: 109 KTS AT 281130Z

TPPS12 PGTW 281455
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED)
B. 28/1430Z
C. 20.62S
D. 155.74E
E. ONE/GK2A
F. T6.0/6.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. DG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG YIELDS AN E#
OF 5.0 (WITH NO EYE ADJUSTMENT). ADDED 0.5 FOR BF, TO YIELD A DT OF
5.5. MET AGREES. PT YIELDS 6.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
28/0858Z 20.15S 155.57E GPMI
28/1053Z 20.30S 155.60E MMHS
RAE

南半球二月已经刷了121.0975，已经薄纱2017一整年（110不到）

18P ALFRED 250228 1800 21.0S 155.6E SHEM 105 952

Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Alfred
Identifier: 22U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 20.8S
Longitude: 155.6E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: south southwest (201 deg)
Speed of Movement: 4 knots (7 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 85 knots (155 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 120 knots (220 km/h)
Central Pressure: 957 hPa
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 01/0000: 21.1S 155.1E: 030 (060): 080 (150): 963
+12: 01/0600: 21.4S 154.7E: 040 (075): 075 (140): 967
+18: 01/1200: 21.7S 154.4E: 050 (090): 070 (130): 971
+24: 01/1800: 22.0S 154.2E: 055 (100): 065 (120): 975
+36: 02/0600: 22.8S 154.5E: 070 (125): 055 (100): 983
+48: 02/1800: 23.4S 155.3E: 080 (145): 050 (095): 987
+60: 03/0600: 24.2S 156.5E: 090 (165): 050 (095): 987
+72: 03/1800: 25.0S 157.9E: 110 (210): 050 (095): 986
+96: 04/1800: 25.5S 158.3E: 200 (370): 050 (095): 983
+120: 05/1800: 25.4S 157.3E: 255 (470): 050 (095): 983

TPPS12 PGTW 281829
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED)
B. 28/1730Z
C. 20.81S
D. 155.50E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T5.5/6.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. B EYE SURROUNDED BY LG YIELDS
AN E# OF 5.0. SUBTRACTED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W TO YIELD A DT OF
4.0. MET YIELDS 5.0. PT YIELDS 5.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
SWANSON

TXPS22 KNES 281752
TCSWSP
A. 18P (ALFRED)
B. 28/1730Z
C. 20.7S
D. 155.5E
E. ONE/HIMAWARI-9
F. T5.0/5.5
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...MG EYE IS EMBEDDED IN LG AND SURROUNDED BY B RESULTING IN
A DT OF 5.0 WITH NO EYE ADJUSTMENT. PT AGREES. MET IS ALSO 5.0 BASED ON
A 24 HOUR SLOW DEVELOPMENT TREND. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TURK

TPPS12 PGTW 282112
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED)
B. 28/2030Z
C. 21.14S
D. 155.76E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T5.5/6.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. MG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.0. MET AND PT YIELD
5.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
SWANSON

TPPS10 PGTW 010021
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED)
B. 28/2330Z
C. 21.60S
D. 155.79E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T5.0/5.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 44A/PBO LARGE CDO/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN B YIELDS A DT
OF 5.0. MET AND PT YIELD 4.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
28/1957Z 20.72S 155.55E SSMS
SWANSON

TXPS22 KNES 010016
TCSWSP
A. 18P (ALFRED)
B. 28/2330Z
C. 21.7S
D. 155.7E
E. ONE/HIMAWARI-9
F. T5.0/5.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...MG EYE SURROUNDED BY B RING AND EMBEDDED IN LG YIELDS A
DT OF 5.0. THE MET IS 5.5 BASED ON A 24HR SLOW WEAKENING TREND. THE PT
IS 5.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...GATLING