TPPS12 PGTW 011824
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED)
B. 01/1730Z
C. 22.62S
D. 155.62E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T3.0/3.5/W2.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. TIGHTLY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH OVERCAST LESS THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF 2.0. MET
YIELDS 4.5. PT YIELDS 4.0. FT BASED ON CONSTRAINTS.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
TIMMERMAN

NAME: TROPICAL CYCLONE ALFRED
IDENTIFIER: 22U
DATA AT: 1800 UTC
LATITUDE: 22.7S
LONGITUDE: 155.4E
LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 20NM (35 KM)
MOVEMENT TOWARDS: SOUTH (180 DEG)
SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 4 KNOTS (8 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 55 KNOTS (100 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 75 KNOTS (140 KM/H)
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
FORECAST DATA
DATE/TIME : LOCATION : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND : CENTRAL PRESSURE
(UTC) : DEGREES : NM (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA
+06: 02/0000: 23.1S 155.4E: 030 (060): 055 (100): 978
+12: 02/0600: 23.6S 155.5E: 040 (075): 050 (095): 982
+18: 02/1200: 24.0S 155.8E: 050 (090): 050 (095): 982
+24: 02/1800: 24.3S 156.3E: 050 (095): 045 (085): 986
+36: 03/0600: 25.4S 157.6E: 065 (120): 045 (085): 986
+48: 03/1800: 26.4S 158.4E: 075 (140): 050 (095): 980
+60: 04/0600: 27.0S 158.1E: 110 (205): 050 (095): 978
+72: 04/1800: 26.8S 156.9E: 135 (250): 050 (095): 979
+96: 05/1800: 27.0S 154.6E: 195 (360): 050 (095): 981
+120: 06/1800: 27.4S 151.8E: 225 (415): 035 (065): 992

TXPS22 KNES 011814
TCSWSP
A. 18P (ALFRED)
B. 01/1730Z
C. 22.8S
D. 155.7E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F. T2.5/3.5
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND A LLCC MORE THAN 1.25
DEGREES AWAY FROM A VERY SMALL OVERCAST YIELDS A DT OF 1.0 BASED ON SHEAR
PATTERN. MET IS A 3.5 DUE TO A RAPID WEAKENING TREND IN THE SYSTEM. PT
IS A 3.0. THE FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING CHANGES IN T-NUMBER
TO 1.0 OVER 6 HOURS.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...NGUYEN

TPPS12 PGTW 012126
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED)
B. 01/2030Z
C. 23.01S
D. 155.58E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T3.0/3.0/W2.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. TIGHTLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
WITH OVERCAST LESS THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF 2.0. MET YIELDS
4.0. PT YIELDS 3.5. FT BASED ON CONSTRAINTS.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
TIMMERMAN

18P ALFRED 250301 1800 22.7S 155.4E SHEM 55 980

喜报：澳洲区同期Ace已经来到了第一

崩的速度比我预期的要快但是现在澳洲区同期的ACE已经来到了历史第一

官评同期第一的澳洲区，数据来自雾夜/simon
Australian Region
2024-25 season
ACE = 70.805 (+41.12)
Total Storms: 8 (+1.1)
Category 1+: 6 (+3.4)
Category 3+: 5 (+4)
Category 5+: 0 (0)
Strongest storm (130kt):
SH172025 (Zelia)

Alfred一个TC刷的ACE比今年南太其他所有TC的总和还要高

这样打转确定没有冷水问题()

这是温气吗

ACE: 18.6350

TXPS22 KNES 020014
TCSWSP
A. 18P (ALFRED)
B. 01/2330Z
C. 23.4S
D. 155.5E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F. T2.0/3.0
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM LACKS DEEP CONVECTION RESULTING IN DT=0. LLCC REMAINS
WELL-DEFINED. MET=3.5 AND PT=3.0. FT BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING FT
CHANGE TO 1.5 IN 12 HR.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...KONON

TPPS12 PGTW 020020
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED)
B. 01/2350Z
C. 23.29S
D. 155.66E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T2.5/3.0/W2.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. TIGHTLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
WITH OVERCAST LESS THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF 2.0. MET YIELDS
3.5. PT YIELDS 2.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
TIMMERMAN