东侧有些薄弱

FY-4B

今年南半球风季观感真好，比我国冬雪季好看13倍

挨切了

TXPS22 KNES 280600
TCSWSP
A. 18P (ALFRED)
B. 28/0530Z
C. 20.0S
D. 155.8E
E. ONE/HIMAWARI-9
F. T5.0/6.0
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...OW EYE IS EMBEDDED AND SURROUNDED BY LG RESULTING IN A DT
OF 5.0. NOTHING ADDED FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET AND PT AGREE. THE FT IS
BASED ON THE DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...KIBLER

5601640浮标昨天13Z在系统中心附近录得整点最低气压962.7hPa，此时系统正处于置换末期

18P ALFRED 250228 0600 20.0S 155.9E SHEM 105 950

TPPS12 PGTW 280642
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED)
B. 28/0620Z
C. 19.95S
D. 155.84E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T5.0/6.0/W0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.0. MET AND PT AGREE.
DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
NEVAREZ

IDQ20065
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 4:49 pm EST on Friday 28 February 2025
At 4 pm AEST Friday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Alfred (Category 4) with central
pressure 951 hPa was located over the Coral Sea near latitude 20.0 south
longitude 155.7 east, which is about 690 km east of Mackay and 660 km northeast
of Rockhampton.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Alfred has been fluctuating in intensity over the past
24 hours and is currently a category 4 cyclone. It is still expected to undergo
an overall weakening trend over the next few days.
Alfred is forecast to continue moving to the south through the Coral Sea
tonight. On Saturday it may take a turn to the south southwest towards the
Queensland coast before tracking southeast away from the coast during Sunday.
There is good confidence that Alfred will stay offshore well into next week.
However, beyond that Alfred is likely to be slow moving with some ongoing
uncertainty as to how close to the southern Queensland coast it may come in the
longer term.
Regardless of the track Alfred takes, severe coastal hazards are likely for
southern Queensland and northeast New South Wales. A large and powerful to
potentially damaging easterly swell as well as abnormally high tides are
forecast to develop about exposed central Queensland beaches today, extending
to southern Queensland from Saturday, and possibly to northern New South Wales
from Sunday or Monday. Refer to marine warnings and forecasts for further
information on these hazards.
The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 11:00 pm AEST Friday 28
February.

5天过去了，这三个气旋中Rai(e)撤编，Bebi(a)nca快撤编，就剩Alfred(dy)这一个了

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：渠鸿宇 签发：向纯怡 2025 年 02 月 28 日 18 时
“艾弗雷德”向偏南方向移动
时 间：28日14时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“艾弗雷德”，ALFRED
中心位置：南纬20.0度、东经155.7度
强度等级：四级强热带气旋
最大风力：14级（45米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级）
中心气压：951百帕
参考位置：澳大利亚昆士兰州麦凯偏东方向约690公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“艾弗雷德”由17级减弱到14级
预报结论：“艾弗雷德”将以每小时15公里左右的速度向偏南方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。

图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年02月28日14时00分）

TPPS12 PGTW 280937
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED)
B. 28/0840Z
C. 20.18S
D. 155.92E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T5.5/6.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. DG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A DT
OF 5.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
NEVAREZ