TPPS12 PGTW 030545
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED)
B. 03/0530Z
C. 26.22S
D. 157.87E
E. THREE/HMWRI9
F. T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. DENSE OVERCAST SHEARED 37NM
FROM LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/0318Z 25.50S 157.25E ATMS
03/0333Z 25.92S 157.42E AMS2
PETERSEN

TXPS22 KNES 030551
TCSWSP
A. 18P (ALFRED)
B. 03/0530Z
C. 26.3S
D. 157.9E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F. T2.0/2.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...TIGHTLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES LOCATED LESS THAN 75NM FROM A
LARGE COLD OVERCAST YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. THE MET AND PT ARE 2.0 BASED ON
A STEADY TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET DUE
TO WANING CONVECTION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...COVERDALE

18P ALFRED 250303 0600 26.2S 157.8E SHEM 50 986

Details of Tropical Cyclone Alfred 22U at 4:00 pm AEST:
Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 26.3 degrees South, 157.9 degrees East , 500 kilometres east northeast of Brisbane and 480 kilometres east of Maroochydore .
Movement: southeast at 14 kilometres per hour .
Tropical Cyclone Alfred, category 1 cyclone, is currently moving southeast but is expected to slow and turn west towards the Queensland coast from Tuesday onwards.
Alfred is expected to intensify to a category 2 cyclone tonight as its south-eastwards movement slows. Alfred's intensity may fluctuate between category 1 and 2 while it remains off the coast during Tuesday and Wednesday.
As it approaches the coast on Thursday, Alfred is expected to maintain intensity as a category 2 cyclone and make landfall between Brisbane and Sunshine Coast late on Thursday or Friday morning.

18P ALFRED 250303 0600 26.2S 157.8E SHEM 45 987

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：吕心艳 签发：钱奇峰 2025 年 03 月 03 日 18 时
“艾弗雷德”向东南转偏西方向移动
时 间：3日14时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“艾弗雷德”，ALFRED
中心位置：南纬26.3度、东经157.9度
强度等级：一级热带气旋
最大风力：9级（23米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）
中心气压：985百帕
参考位置：澳大利亚昆士兰州布里斯班东偏北方向约500公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“艾弗雷德”由10级减弱到9级
预报结论：“艾弗雷德” 将以每小时10公里左右的速度向东南转偏西方向移动，强度略有增强。

图2 卫星可见光监测图像（北京时间2025年03月03日14时00分）

TPPS12 PGTW 030844
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED)
B. 03/0830Z
C. 26.46S
D. 158.01E
E. THREE/HMWRI9
F. T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. TIGHTLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF 2.5. MET
AGREES. PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/0318Z 25.50S 157.25E ATMS
03/0331Z 26.12S 157.58E AMS2
03/0600Z 26.12S 157.57E SSMS
PETERSEN

深对流又没了
最低云顶温度11

什么，那是______

TPPS12 PGTW 031146
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED)
B. 03/1130Z
C. 26.80S
D. 158.24E
E. THREE/HMWRI9
F. T2.0/2.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC LOCATED MORE THAN 75NM
OUTSIDE OF COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELDS A DT OF
2.0. MET YIELDS 1.5. PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/0600Z 26.12S 157.57E SSMS
RAE