NAME: TROPICAL CYCLONE TALIAH
IDENTIFIER: 14U
DATA AT: 1800 UTC
LATITUDE: 14.3S
LONGITUDE: 92.5E
LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 25NM (45 KM)
MOVEMENT TOWARDS: WEST (270 DEG)
SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 4 KNOTS (8 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 40 KNOTS (75 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 55 KNOTS (100 KM/H)
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
FORECAST DATA
DATE/TIME : LOCATION : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND : CENTRAL PRESSURE
(UTC) : DEGREES : NM (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA
+06: 11/0000: 14.6S 92.1E: 035 (070): 045 (085): 990
+12: 11/0600: 15.0S 91.7E: 045 (085): 045 (085): 990
+18: 11/1200: 15.5S 91.4E: 055 (100): 045 (085): 990
+24: 11/1800: 16.1S 91.0E: 060 (110): 050 (095): 987
+36: 12/0600: 17.5S 90.2E: 075 (140): 055 (100): 984
+48: 12/1800: 19.4S 89.4E: 090 (170): 060 (110): 977
+60: 13/0600: 21.2S 88.0E: 105 (195): 055 (100): 980
+72: 13/1800: 22.5S 86.7E: 115 (215): 050 (095): 983
+96: 14/1800: 24.0S 85.1E: 160 (295): 045 (085): 984
+120: 15/1800: 25.1S 82.9E: 220 (405): 045 (085): 985

14S TALIAH 250210 1800 14.1S 92.4E SHEM 50 992

TPXS13 PGTW 101823
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH)
B. 10/1730Z
C. 14.55S
D. 92.43E
E. SIX/GK2A
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .8 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET YIELDS 3.5. PT YIELDS 3.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
SWANSON

TXXS27 KNES 101840
TCSSIO
A. 14S (TALIAH)
B. 10/1730Z
C. 14.6S
D. 92.2E
E. FIVE/MET-9
F. T3.5/3.5
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...9/10 BANDING ON A LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. MET
IS A 3.5 DUE TO A STEADY TREND IN THE SYSTEM. PT AGREES WITH MET AND
DT. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...NGUYEN

TPXS13 PGTW 102111
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH)
B. 10/2030Z
C. 14.57S
D. 92.58E
E. SIX/GK2A
F. T3.0/3.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .6 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 2.5. PT YIELDS 3.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
10/1823Z 14.33S 92.55E GPMI
SWANSON

呃

TPXS13 PGTW 110019
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH)
B. 10/2330Z
C. 14.75S
D. 92.37E
E. SIX/GK2A
F. T3.0/3.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .6 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 2.5. PT YIELDS 3.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
10/1905Z 14.47S 92.40E AMS2
SWANSON

TXXS27 KNES 110012
TCSSIO
A. 14S (TALIAH)
B. 10/2340Z
C. 14.5S
D. 92.0E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F. T3.0/3.5
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/PRXY
H. REMARKS...6/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. THE MET IS 3.0 BASED ON A
24HR SLOW DEVELOPING TREND. THE PT IS ALSO 3.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...GATLING

14S TALIAH 250211 0000 14.5S 92.3E SHEM 45 992

IDW24020
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:38 am WST on Tuesday 11 February 2025
Tropical Cyclone Taliah was located at 8:00 am AWST (6:30 am CCT) near 14.3S
92.1E, that is 560 km west southwest of Cocos (Keeling) Islands and and moving
west at 9 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Taliah, Category 1, has been slowly moving west. Taliah is
forecast to move southwest, and gradually strengthen, reaching Category 2
intensity overnight tonight.
No direct impacts are expected at the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.
The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 3:00 pm AWST Tuesday 11
February.

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：赵渊明 签发：向纯怡 2025 年 02 月 11 日 10 时
“塔利亚”向西南方向移动
时 间：11日08时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“塔利亚”，TALIAH
中心位置：南纬14.3度、东经92.1度
强度等级：一级热带气旋
最大风力：8级（20米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）
中心气压：993百帕
参考位置：澳大利亚科科斯群岛西南方向约570公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“塔利亚”强度变化不大
预报结论：“塔利亚”将以每小时10-15公里的速度向西南方向移动，强度还将有所增强。

图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年02月11日08时00分）

一天没看， 果然还是冷崩了（北暖南冷导致核心冻伤雨带发达）
不过目前已过滞留点，接下来有三天正常发展时间（虽然sst还是低）,并且由于强度低，后期仍然存在平西可能（80E以西暖水支持到28S），我的建议是谨慎乐观