应当已有sts水平

ACE: 11.7075

14S TALIAH 250210 0000 14.6S 93.1E SHEM 40 996

TXXS27 KNES 100614
TCSSIO
A. 14S (TALIAH)
B. 10/0530Z
C. 14.3S
D. 92.9E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F. T3.5/3.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...8/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.5. THE MET IS 3.5 BASED ON
A SLOW DEVELOPMENT TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS ALSO 3.5. THE
FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...BERTALAN

TPXS13 PGTW 100633
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH)
B. 10/0600Z
C. 14.51S
D. 92.84E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 0.7 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 3.0. PT YIELDS 3.5. DBP DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
NEVAREZ

14S TALIAH 250210 0600 14.0S 92.9E SHEM 40 996
14S TALIAH 250210 0000 14.6S 93.1E SHEM 40 996
14S TALIAH 250209 1800 14.8S 93.2E SHEM 35 999

IDW24020
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 2:48 pm WST on Monday 10 February 2025
Tropical Cyclone Taliah was located at 1:00 pm CXT near 14.2S 92.7E, that is
500 km west southwest of Cocos (Keeling) Islands and and moving northwest at 6
kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Taliah, Category 1, has slowed down and continues to slowly
intensify. Taliah is forecast to take a turn to the southwest on Tuesday and
intensify further to Category 2 on Tuesday. Taliah is then expected to reach
Category 3 on Wednesday as it tracks further southwest.
No direct impacts are expected at the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.
The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 9:00 pm AWST Monday 10 February.

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：柳龙生 签发：董林 2025 年 02 月 10 日 18 时
“塔利亚”将向西北转西南方向移动
时 间：10日14时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“塔利亚”，TALIAH
中心位置：南纬14.2度、东经92.7度
强度等级：一级热带气旋
最大风力：8级（20米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）
中心气压：993百帕
参考位置：澳大利亚科科斯群岛西南方向约510公里的洋面上
变化过程： 过去24小时，“塔利亚”强度不变
预报结论：“塔利亚” 将以每小时5-10公里左右的速度向西北转西南方向移动，强度还将有所加强。

图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年02月10日14时00分）

从切崩以来形态最好的一次

现在还有希望平西吗

TPXS13 PGTW 100921
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH)
B. 10/0850Z
C. 14.25S
D. 92.82E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 0.6 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
NEVAREZ

试图围眼

可以看到14S所在位置OHC仅30左右如果滞留过长恐怕难免国色天香