20％可能两天后MH

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：赵渊明 签发：许映龙 2025 年 02 月 07 日 18 时
“塔利亚”向西偏南方向移动
时 间：7日14时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“塔利亚”，TALIAH
中心位置：南纬16.0度、东经99.3度
强度等级：一级热带气旋
最大风力：9级（23米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）
中心气压：992百帕
参考位置：澳大利亚西澳大利亚州埃克斯茅斯西北方向约1680公里的洋面上
变化过程： 过去24小时，“塔利亚”由10级减弱到9级
预报结论：“塔利亚” 将以每小时20公里左右的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。

图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年02月07日14时00分）

风切一直在降，为什么就是发展不起来

TPXS13 PGTW 071218
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH)
B. 07/1130Z
C. 15.90S
D. 98.30E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T3.5/3.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED 35NM IN SHEARED DENSE
OVERCAST YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. BOTH MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
LINDGREN

FY-4B

14S TALIAH 250207 1200 16.2S 98.3E SHEM 45 991

IDW24000
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:41 pm WST on Friday 7 February 2025
Tropical Cyclone Taliah (Category 1) was located at 8:00 pm AWST near 16.2S
98.1E, that is 465 km south southeast of Cocos (Keeling) Islands and 1040 km
southwest of Christmas Island and moving west southwest at 21 kilometres per
hour.
Tropical Cyclone Taliah, Category 1, lies well to the south-southeast of the
Cocos (Keeling) Islands, and is tracking west-southwest. There is high
confidence that Taliah will continue westwards to pass south of the Cocos
(Keeling) Islands overnight into Saturday. Taliah is expected to re-intensify
to Category 2 from late Saturday and Category 3 on Sunday.
No direct impacts are expected at the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.
The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 3:00 am AWST Saturday 08
February.

TXXS27 KNES 071232
TCSSIO
A. 14S (TALIAH)
B. 07/1130Z
C. 15.9S
D. 98.1E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F. T3.5/3.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...LLCC EMBEDDED 1/3 DEG INTO A LARGE COLD OVC RESULTING
IN A DT OF 3.5. CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -91 C. MDT MID-LVL ERLY SHEAR
IMPACTING SYSTEM. MET=4.0 AND PT=3.5. FT BASED ON MET DUE TO IRREG/PULSING
CONVECTION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...KONON

雨带已经消退，再坚持一下就到窗口期了

快熬出头了，希望能超越上一次巅峰

看不明白的形态，不过有好转。