比上次更惨，多砍了一刀c1不说还降了俩55

14S TALIAH 250207 0000 14.3S 100.3E SHEM 55 984

GEPS和GEFS对后期强度的分歧很大

不会真成20天鹅和艾莎尼了吧，我还有点想看天兔和万宜再世的

14S TALIAH 250207 0000 15.3S 100.8E SHEM 45 993
14S TALIAH 250206 1800 14.8S 101.6E SHEM 50 989

TPXS13 PGTW 070630
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH)
B. 07/0550Z
C. 15.50S
D. 99.90E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T3.0/3.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED 0NM IN
SHEARED DENSE OVERCAST YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO
DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
NEVAREZ

14S TALIAH 250207 0600 15.6S 99.5E SHEM 45 992

IDW24000
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 2:44 pm WST on Friday 7 February 2025
Tropical Cyclone Taliah (Category 1) was located at 2:00 pm AWST near 16.0S
99.3E, that is 505 km south southeast of Cocos (Keeling) Islands and 930 km
southwest of Christmas Island and moving west southwest at 22 kilometres per
hour.
Tropical Cyclone Taliah, Category 1, lies well to the southeast of the Cocos
(Keeling) Islands, and is tracking westward. There is high confidence that
Taliah will continue westwards to pass south of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands
later on Friday or early Saturday. Taliah is expected to re-intensify to
Category 2 from late Saturday.
No direct impacts are expected at the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.
The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 9:00 pm AWST Friday 07 February.

平凡的一只ts~

TXXS27 KNES 070631
TCSSIO
A. 14S (TALIAH)
B. 07/0530Z
C. 15.1S
D. 99.4E
E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-9
F. T3.5/4.0
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...LLCC LOCATED 1/3 DEGREES INTO COLD OVERCAST YIELDS A DT
OF 3.5. THE MET IS 3.5 BASED ON A 24HR SLOW DEVELOPING TREND. THE PT IS
3.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN CENTER LOCATION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...GATLING

前方是一片坦途，可惜一众数值似乎都不上望高强度了

核心区附近风切降至15~20kt