？？？

TPXS13 PGTW 081203
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH)
B. 08/1130Z
C. 16.03S
D. 94.73E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.5/3.0/W1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .45 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS 3.0. PT YIELDS 2.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
08/0942Z 15.78S 95.28E SSMS
LINDGREN

TXXS27 KNES 081208
TCSSIO
A. 14S (TALIAH)
B. 08/1130Z
C. 15.9S
D. 94.8E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F. T2.5/3.0
G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF THE CENTER MEASURES 4/10
RESULTING IN A DT OF 2.5. THE MET IS 3.0 BASED ON A 24 HOUR SLOW WEAKENING
TREND. THE PT IS 2.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT BECAUSE BANDING FEATURES
WERE NOT CLEAR CUT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
08/0945Z 15.8S 95.2E SSMIS
...TURK

IDW24020
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:54 pm WST on Saturday 8 February 2025
Tropical Cyclone Taliah (Category 1) was located at 7:00 pm CXT near 15.7S
95.0E,
that is 440 km south southwest of Cocos (Keeling) Islands and 1300 km west
southwest of Christmas Island and moving west northwest at 9 kilometres per
hour.
No direct impacts are expected at the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.
The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 3:00 am AWST Sunday 09 February.

咋半天还没跟雨带弄明白

现在基本就是海温的问题了
gfs这报认为滞留后若仍有较高强度，则引导气流层面变高，即可走偏西北路径躲开Vince冷水坑，后期仍有进入马岛暖流的机会。但Taliah若发展过快就有可能直接在滞留时挖冷水，后期强度太高也有可能顶破南印副高南下……
因此，现在最好的情况是Taliah以较低强度进入滞留区，然后迅速以小环流小眼的形态爆发接上偏西引导气流（虽然这不太可能，但黄绿OHC真的抗不住24小时以上的滞留），接着以中等强度苟住纬度西行（避免顶破副高），等待Vince转温后再利用马岛暖流增强，可见这几天的滞留非常重要。
总结：Taliah成败在此一举了

TPXS13 PGTW 081506
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH)
B. 08/1430Z
C. 15.87S
D. 94.43E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.5/3.0/W1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. BOTH MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
08/0942Z 15.78S 95.28E SSMS
08/1146Z 15.78S 94.75E SSMS
08/1224Z 15.70S 94.90E SSMS
LINDGREN

错一步，这一生就只能草率了。愿它幸运

NAME: TROPICAL CYCLONE TALIAH
IDENTIFIER: 14U
DATA AT: 1800 UTC
LATITUDE: 15.5S
LONGITUDE: 95.0E
LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 30NM (55 KM)
MOVEMENT TOWARDS: WEST NORTHWEST (300 DEG)
SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 3 KNOTS (6 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 40 KNOTS (75 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 55 KNOTS (100 KM/H)
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
FORECAST DATA
DATE/TIME : LOCATION : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND : CENTRAL PRESSURE
(UTC) : DEGREES : NM (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA
+06: 09/0000: 15.4S 94.5E: 040 (080): 045 (085): 990
+12: 09/0600: 15.2S 94.0E: 050 (095): 050 (095): 987
+18: 09/1200: 15.0S 93.8E: 060 (110): 060 (110): 979
+24: 09/1800: 14.8S 93.6E: 065 (120): 065 (120): 975
+36: 10/0600: 14.4S 93.3E: 080 (150): 070 (130): 970
+48: 10/1800: 14.4S 93.0E: 085 (160): 070 (130): 970
+60: 11/0600: 14.9S 92.4E: 085 (160): 075 (140): 966
+72: 11/1800: 15.8S 91.4E: 095 (175): 075 (140): 967
+96: 12/1800: 18.7S 88.5E: 160 (295): 065 (120): 973
+120: 13/1800: 22.0S 85.2E: 210 (390): 055 (100): 979