18P ALFRED 250303 1200 26.7S 158.2E SHEM 45 987

TXPS22 KNES 031200
TCSWSP
A. 18P (ALFRED)
B. 03/1130Z
C. 26.7S
D. 158.3E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F. T1.0/2.0
G. IR/EIR/PRXY
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS DEVOID OF CONVECTION. DT AND PT ARE LESS THAN
1.0. MET IS 1.0 BASED ON A 24 HOUR RAPID WEAKENING TREND. THE FT IS
BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING CHANGES IN T-NUMBER TO 1 OVER 6 HOURS.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TURK

18P ALFRED 250303 1200 26.7S 158.2E SHEM 45 987

Details of Tropical Cyclone Alfred 22U at 10:00 pm AEST:
Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 26.8 degrees South, 158.5 degrees East , 550 kilometres east of Brisbane and 540 kilometres east of Maroochydore .
Movement: southeast at 14 kilometres per hour .
Tropical Cyclone Alfred, category 1 cyclone, is currently moving southeast but is expected to slow and turn west towards the Queensland coast from Tuesday onwards.
Alfred may intensify to a category 2 cyclone tonight though is more likely to do so during Tuesday as its south-eastward movement slows. Alfred's intensity may fluctuate between category 1 and 2 while it remains off the coast during Tuesday and Wednesday.
As it approaches the coast on Thursday, Alfred is expected to maintain intensity as a category 2 cyclone and make landfall between Brisbane and Sunshine Coast late on Thursday or Friday morning.

18P ALFRED 250303 1200 26.7S 158.2E SHEM 50 986

ACE: 20.2975

TPPS12 PGTW 031504
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED)
B. 03/1430Z
C. 26.94S
D. 158.39E
E. THREE/HMWRI9
F. T2.0/2.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC LOCATED MORE THAN 75NM
OUTSIDE OF COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELDS A DT OF
1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT HELD TO CONTRAINT OF T# CHANGE IN 6HR.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
RAE

NAME: TROPICAL CYCLONE ALFRED
IDENTIFIER: 22U
DATA AT: 1800 UTC
LATITUDE: 27.1S
LONGITUDE: 158.7E
LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 15NM (30 KM)
MOVEMENT TOWARDS: SOUTH SOUTHEAST (149 DEG)
SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 3 KNOTS (6 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 50 KNOTS (95 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 70 KNOTS (130 KM/H)
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
FORECAST DATA
DATE/TIME : LOCATION : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND : CENTRAL PRESSURE
(UTC) : DEGREES : NM (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA
+06: 04/0000: 27.3S 158.9E: 030 (050): 050 (095): 980
+12: 04/0600: 27.6S 158.9E: 035 (065): 050 (095): 981
+18: 04/1200: 27.6S 158.3E: 045 (080): 050 (095): 981
+24: 04/1800: 27.3S 157.4E: 050 (090): 050 (095): 983
+36: 05/0600: 27.0S 156.0E: 050 (095): 050 (095): 983
+48: 05/1800: 26.6S 155.1E: 060 (110): 050 (095): 985
+60: 06/0600: 26.7S 154.1E: 075 (145): 055 (100): 981
+72: 06/1800: 27.0S 152.8E: 095 (175): 045 (085): 989
+96: 07/1800: 27.7S 150.0E: 155 (285): 025 (045): 1003
+120: 08/1800: : : :

18P ALFRED 250303 1800 27.0S 158.5E SHEM 55 983

TPPS12 PGTW 031806
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED)
B. 03/1730Z
C. 27.20S
D. 158.65E
E. THREE/HMWRI9
F. T2.0/2.5/W1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF 2.0. MET
YIELDS 2.0. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
SWANSON

TXPS22 KNES 031803
TCSWSP
A. 18P (ALFRED)
B. 03/1730Z
C. 27.1S
D. 158.6E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F. SUBTROPICAL
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/PRXY
H. REMARKS...MUCH OF THE CIRCULATION IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED WITH LIMITED
CONVECTION NEARLY 200 KM POLEWARD OF THE CENTER. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL
BULLETIN UNLESS SATELLITE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME PURELY
TROPICAL IN NATURE.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TURK

TPPS12 PGTW 032110
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED)
B. 03/2030Z
C. 27.10S
D. 158.91E
E. THREE/HMWRI9
F. T2.0/2.5/W1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF 2.0. MET
YIELDS 2.0. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
SWANSON