全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：宋佳凝 签发：钱奇峰 2025 年 03 月 05 日 10 时
“艾弗雷德”向偏西方向移动
时 间：5日08时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“艾弗雷德”，ALFRED
中心位置：南纬27.6度、东经156.5度
强度等级：二级热带气旋
最大风力：10级（25米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）
中心气压：983百帕
参考位置：澳大利亚昆士兰州布里斯班偏东方向约345公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“艾弗雷德”由11级减弱到10级
预报结论：“艾弗雷德”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向偏西方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。

图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年03月05日08时00分）

图2 澳大利亚附近海域二级热带气旋“艾弗雷德”未来60小时路径概率预报图

TPPS12 PGTW 050247
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED)
B. 05/0230Z
C. 27.30S
D. 156.41E
E. FIVE/HMWRI9
F. T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. TIGHTLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES LOCATED
NEAR OR UNDER COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS 3.0 PT
YIELDS 2.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
04/2108Z 27.62S 156.77E GPMI
04/2223Z 27.72S 156.53E MMHS
PETERSEN

要双了（特大浓雾）

TPPS12 PGTW 050553
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED)
B. 05/0530Z
C. 27.19S
D. 156.40E
E. THREE/HMWRI9
F. T2.0/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. TIGHTLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
LOCATED NEAR OR UNDER COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 2.5. MET AGREES.
PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
PETERSEN

TPPS12 PGTW 050557 COR
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED)
B. 05/0531Z
C. 27.19S
D. 156.40E
E. THREE/HMWRI9
F. T2.0/2.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. TIGHTLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
LOCATED NEAR OR UNDER COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 2.5. MET AGREES.
PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO PT. CORRECTED FOR LONG TERM TREND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
PETERSEN

18P ALFRED 250305 0600 27.2S 156.1E SHEM 55 980

TXPS22 KNES 050634
TCSWSP
A. 18P (ALFRED)
B. 05/0530Z
C. 27.2S
D. 156.5E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F. T1.5/2.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. THE MET
AND PT ARE NOT AVAILABLE BECAUSE THE SYSTEM WAS NOT ACTIVE 24 HOURS
AGO. THE FT IS BASED ON THE CONSTRAINTS THAT LIMIT CHANGES IN THE T
NUMBER TO 1.0 OVER 6 HOURS.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...BERTALAN

Details of Tropical Cyclone Alfred 22U at 4:00 pm AEST:
Intensity: category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 27.3 degrees South, 156.3 degrees East , 325 kilometres east of Brisbane and 305 kilometres east northeast of Gold Coast .
Movement: west northwest at 14 kilometres per hour .
Tropical Cyclone Alfred is moving towards the southeast Queensland coast, with the far western edge beginning to reach the coast from about Coolangatta to Ballina.
Alfred is a category 2 cyclone, and is forecast to maintain this intensity as it continues to approach the southeast Queensland coast this afternoon and during Thursday. The centre of Alfred is expected to cross the coast early Friday morning, most likely between Maroochydore and Coolangatta.

耐活王

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：宋佳凝 签发：钱奇峰 2025 年 03 月 05 日 18 时
“艾弗雷德”向西偏北方向移动
时 间：5日14时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“艾弗雷德”，ALFRED
中心位置：南纬27.3度、东经156.3度
强度等级：二级热带气旋
最大风力：10级（25米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）
中心气压：982百帕
参考位置：澳大利亚昆士兰州布里斯班偏东方向约325公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“艾弗雷德”由11级减弱到10级
预报结论：“艾弗雷德”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向西偏北方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。

图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年03月05日14时00分）

图2 澳大利亚附近海域二级热带气旋“艾弗雷德”未来60小时路径概率预报图

这一轮活跃期里面最早编号系统的反而似得最晚，好像要接上下一轮活跃期了，有望SH18和SH24甚至25共舞，和当年奥鹿尼格共舞一样跨了5个编号