14S TALIAH 250208 1800 15.7S 94.7E SHEM 45 994

TPXS13 PGTW 081824
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH)
B. 08/1730Z
C. 15.52S
D. 94.78E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.5/2.5/W1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS 2.5. PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
TIMMERMAN

TXXS27 KNES 081811
TCSSIO
A. 14S (TALIAH)
B. 08/1730Z
C. 15.7S
D. 94.3E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F. T3.0/3.0
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY A CENTRAL COLD COVER (CCC)
WHICH DOES NOT ALLOW FOR A DT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN CENTER LOCATION. MW
DATA FROM 2 HOURS AGO SUGGESTED THE CENTER MAY BE FARTHER EAST. MET IS
3.5 BASED ON A 24 HOUR STEADY TREND. PT IS 3.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TURK

TPXS13 PGTW 082103
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH)
B. 08/2030Z
C. 15.21S
D. 94.13E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.5/2.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET & PT YIELD 2.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
TIMMERMAN

日出

TPXS13 PGTW 082352
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH)
B. 08/2330Z
C. 15.22S
D. 94.41E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.5/2.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .50 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS 2.0. PT YIELDS 2.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
08/1848Z 14.85S 94.52E ATMS
TIMMERMAN

TXXS27 KNES 090003
TCSSIO
A. 14S (TALIAH)
B. 08/2330Z
C. 15.1S
D. 94.7E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F. T3.0/3.0
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/ATMS/AMSR2
H. REMARKS...6/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT=3.0. THE MET AND PT AGREE. THE FT
IS BASED ON THE MET SINCE THE POSN OF THE LLCC RELATIVE TO THE BANDING
FEATURE IS NOT CLEAR-CUT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
08/1850Z 15.0S 95.0E ATMS
08/1919Z 15.3S 95.0E AMSR2
...LEE

有所恢复

14S TALIAH 250209 0000 15.3S 94.3E SHEM 45 994

卷

NAME: TROPICAL CYCLONE TALIAH
IDENTIFIER: 14U
DATA AT: 0000 UTC
LATITUDE: 15.4S
LONGITUDE: 94.9E
LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 30NM (55 KM)
MOVEMENT TOWARDS: NORTHWEST (321 DEG)
SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 2 KNOTS (4 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 40 KNOTS (75 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 55 KNOTS (100 KM/H)
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
FORECAST DATA
DATE/TIME : LOCATION : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND : CENTRAL PRESSURE
(UTC) : DEGREES : NM (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA
+06: 09/0600: 15.5S 94.3E: 040 (080): 035 (065): 998
+12: 09/1200: 15.4S 93.6E: 050 (095): 040 (075): 993
+18: 09/1800: 15.1S 93.2E: 060 (110): 045 (085): 991
+24: 10/0000: 14.8S 92.9E: 065 (120): 050 (095): 987
+36: 10/1200: 14.6S 92.5E: 080 (145): 055 (100): 982
+48: 11/0000: 14.8S 91.8E: 090 (165): 065 (120): 976
+60: 11/1200: 15.5S 91.0E: 100 (185): 070 (130): 972
+72: 12/0000: 16.3S 90.0E: 115 (215): 070 (130): 973
+96: 13/0000: 19.7S 87.7E: 175 (330): 065 (120): 974
+120: 14/0000: 22.3S 84.9E: 220 (405): 055 (100): 980

系集更加发散，但总体滞留后路径有西调，好兆头

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：吕心艳 签发：董 林 2025 年 02 月 09 日 10 时
“塔利亚”向偏西方向移动
时 间：9日08时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“塔利亚”，TALIAH
中心位置：南纬15.4度、东经94.9度
强度等级：一级热带气旋
最大风力：8级（20米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）
中心气压：992百帕
参考位置：澳大利亚科科斯群岛南偏西方向约390公里的洋面上
变化过程： 过去24小时，“塔利亚”由9级减弱到8级
预报结论：“塔利亚” 将以每小时5公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动，强度将有所增强。

图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年02月09日08时00分）

西侧新对流