Details of Tropical Cyclone Courtney 27U at 8:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 100 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 140 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 17.5 degrees South, 103.2 degrees East , 830 kilometres south southwest of Christmas Island and 910 kilometres southeast of Cocos (Keeling) Islands .
Movement: west at 25 kilometres per hour .
Tropical Cyclone Courtney is intensifying over open waters in the Indian Ocean well to the northwest of Western Australia. It will continue to move westwards and intensify further in coming days.
Tropical Cyclone Courtney will not impact the Western Australian coast, the Cocos (Keeling) Islands or Christmas Island.

27S COURTNEY 250326 1200 17.7S 103.1E SHEM 65 983

风切还是在15kt以上，20+kt也不是没有可能

EC-06Z（3.26）

M27，请

所以这货有可能一路平西直到65甚至60吗？

撑住

虽然风切还是很强，但是1202z那张底层可能会有些类似于单帧偏弱的问题，因为1330z的云图很明显能看出对流已经卷绕到东侧了（虽然幅散云一直卡在一个位置）。不过这种西侧爆对流然后再卷绕到东侧的现象已经出现过很多次了（感觉有点类似于传奇北眼墙)，核心结构应当没有出太大问题，风切还做不到下死手。之后路径会有一段北抬，风切可能降不了太多，但移速会逐渐增加，能抵消些许风切，且转折南下有可能进低风切区，机会还是不少的，就看他中不中用了。

TPXS11 PGTW 261515
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY)
B. 26/1430Z
C. 17.41S
D. 102.30E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN B YIELDS A DT OF
5.0. MET YIELDS 3.5. PT YIELDS 4.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
26/1104Z 17.58S 103.12E SSMS
NEVAREZ