14S TALIAH 250213 1200 22.6S 86.6E SHEM 50 988

TPXS13 PGTW 131509
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH)
B. 13/1430Z
C. 22.98S
D. 86.00E
E. FOUR/GOES-IO
F. T2.5/3.0/W2.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. TIGHTLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF 2.5. MET
YIELDS 3.5. PT YIELDS 3.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
13/1011Z 22.60S 86.50E SSMS
LINDGREN

1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (TALIAH)
2.A POSITION 2025/02/13 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.1 S / 85.5 E
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/3.0/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/14 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 84.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 370 SW: 335 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 120
24H: 2025/02/14 18 UTC: 24.5 S / 83.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 380 SW: 390 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 130
36H: 2025/02/15 06 UTC: 25.0 S / 83.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 510 SW: 490 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 120
48H: 2025/02/15 18 UTC: 25.6 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 530 SW: 480 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 325 SW: 305 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 0
60H: 2025/02/16 06 UTC: 26.9 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 530 SW: 400 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 325 SW: 260 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 95
72H: 2025/02/16 18 UTC: 28.1 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 435 SW: 380 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 0
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/17 18 UTC: 29.5 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 455 SW: 325 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 280 SW: 215 NW: 110
120H: 2025/02/18 18 UTC: 31.1 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 285 SW: 240 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 100

14S TALIAH 250213 1800 23.1S 85.6E SHEM 50 985
14S TALIAH 250213 1200 22.7S 86.5E SHEM 50 988
14S TALIAH 250213 0600 21.9S 87.3E SHEM 50 989

TPXS13 PGTW 131807
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH)
B. 13/1730Z
C. 23.16S
D. 85.57E
E. FOUR/GOES-IO
F. T2.0/2.5/W2.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO . CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES WITH COLD
OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF 2.0. MET YIELDS
3.0. PT YIELDS 2.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
13/1217Z 22.88S 85.97E MMWI
13/1255Z 22.90S 86.10E SSMS
TIMMERMAN

TXXS27 KNES 131753
TCSSIO
A. 14S (TALIAH)
B. 13/1730Z
C. 23.0S
D. 85.7E
E. THREE/MET-9
F. T2.0/3.0
G. IR/EIR/PRXY
H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 CURVED BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. THE
MET IS 3.0 BASED ON A RAPIDLIY WEAKENING TREND IN APPARENT INTENSITY
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS 2.5. THE FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS
LIMITING CHANGE IN INTENSITY TO 2.5 T NUMBERS OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...HOSLEY

TPXS13 PGTW 132110
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALKIAH)
B. 13/2030Z
C. 23.19S
D. 85.07E
E. FOUR/GK2A
F. T2.0/2.5/W2.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF 2.0. MET
AND PT YIELD 2.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
13/1553Z 22.85S 85.77E MMHS
13/1605Z 22.78S 85.92E MMHS
TIMMERMAN

TXXS27 KNES 132341
TCSSIO
A. 14S (TALIAH)
B. 13/2315Z
C. 23.3S
D. 85.3E
E. THREE/MET-9
F. T1.5/2.5
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULAR TIGHTLY-DEFINED CLOUD
LINES AND >1.25 DEG FM A VERY SMALL COLD OVC RESULTING IN A DT OF
1.5. LLCC LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED. MET=2.0 AND PT=1.5. FT BASED ON PT
DUE TO IRREG/PULSING CONVECTION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...KONON

TPXS13 PGTW 140008
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH)
B. 13/2330Z
C. 23.34S
D. 84.95E
E. FOUR/GK2A
F. T2.0/2.0/W1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. TIGHTLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
WITH OVERCAST LESS THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF 2.0. MET YIELDS
2.0. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
13/1937Z 23.10S 85.13E AMS2
13/2130Z 23.18S 84.97E SSMS
TIMMERMAN

SH, 14, 2025021400, , BEST, 0, 233S, 851E, 45, 994, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 165, 175, 120, 1009, 270, 60, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, TALIAH, M,

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：渠鸿宇 签发：董林 2025 年 02 月 14 日 10 时
“塔利亚”向西南方向移动
时 间：14日08时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“塔利亚”，TALIAH
中心位置：南纬23.5度、东经84.9度
强度等级：热带风暴
最大风力：9级（23米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）
中心气压：988百帕
参考位置：毛里求斯路易港偏东方向约2850公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“塔利亚”由11级减弱到9级
预报结论：“塔利亚”将以每小时10-15公里的速度向西南方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。

图3 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年02月14日08时00分）

进冷水区了，走好，一生坎坷的14S