全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：吕心艳 签发：钱奇峰 2025 年 03 月 03 日 18 时
“洪德”向南偏东方向移动
时 间：3日14时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“洪德”，HONDE
中心位置：南纬27.4度、东经46.7度
强度等级：强热带风暴
最大风力：10级（25米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）
中心气压：982百帕
参考位置：马达加斯加陶拉纳鲁偏南方向约265公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“洪德”由12级减弱到10级
预报结论：“洪德”将以每小时5-10公里的速度向南偏东方向缓慢移动，强度略有增强。

图1 卫星可见光监测图像（北京时间2025年03月03日14时00分）

TPXS11 PGTW 030851
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HONDE)
B. 03/0830Z
C. 27.46S
D. 47.10E
E. THREE/MET9
F. T3.0/3.5/W1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. DENSE OVERCAST SHEARED 17NM
FROM LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/0305Z 26.93S 46.50E SSMS
03/0316Z 27.20S 46.75E SMOS
03/0446Z 27.42S 46.98E GPMI
03/0550Z 27.38S 47.17E MMHS
PETERSEN

TXXS26 KNES 031130
TCSSIO
A. 23S (HONDE)
B. 03/1100Z
C. 27.7S
D. 47.3E
E. THREE/MET-9
F. T1.5/2.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. THE PT AGREES. THE
MET IS 2.0 BASED ON RAPID WEAKENING OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE FT IS
BASED ON THE PT BECAUSE BANDING WASN'T CLEAR CUT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TURK

TPXS11 PGTW 031201
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HONDE)
B. 03/1130Z
C. 27.73S
D. 47.46E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T3.0/3.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .5 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT HELD TO
CONSTRAINT FOR T# CHANGE IN 6HR.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/0652Z 27.50S 46.97E TMPT
RAE

23S HONDE 250303 1200 27.8S 47.3E SHEM 50 984

TPXS11 PGTW 031506
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HONDE)
B. 03/1430Z
C. 27.90S
D. 47.74E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T2.5/2.5/W1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .5 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/1004Z 27.73S 47.60E ATMS
03/1006Z 27.68S 47.28E AMS2
03/1027Z 27.70S 47.35E ATMS
03/1247Z 27.73S 47.20E SSMS
RAE

TPXS11 PGTW 031544 COR
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HONDE)
B. 03/1431Z
C. 27.90S
D. 47.74E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T2.5/3.0/W1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .5 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT. COR OF CI.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/1004Z 27.73S 47.60E ATMS
03/1006Z 27.68S 47.28E AMS2
03/1027Z 27.70S 47.35E ATMS
03/1247Z 27.73S 47.20E SSMS
03/1433Z 27.85S 47.50E GPMI
RAE

1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE)
2.A POSITION 2025/03/03 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.3 S / 47.7 E
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/04 06 UTC: 29.5 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 530 SW: 455 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 305 SW: 260 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
24H: 2025/03/04 18 UTC: 31.0 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 600 SW: 405 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 350 SW: 240 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 55
36H: 2025/03/05 06 UTC: 33.5 S / 48.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 500 SW: 325 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SW: 250 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 0
48H: 2025/03/05 18 UTC: 36.3 S / 49.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 535 SW: 325 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 325 SW: 260 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 0
60H: 2025/03/06 06 UTC: 39.0 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 380 SW: 220 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 130
72H: 2025/03/06 18 UTC: 41.2 S / 54.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 270 SW: 140 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 150 SW: 75 NW: 120
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

23S HONDE 250303 1800 28.2S 48.0E SHEM 45 990

TPXS11 PGTW 031802
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HONDE)
B. 03/1730Z
C. 28.26S
D. 47.73E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .5 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS 2.0. PT YIELDS 2.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/1247Z 27.73S 47.20E SSMS
03/1433Z 27.85S 47.50E GPMI
SWANSON