切离度增大，希望能撑住

CHP6在06z预报
Simon：但是已经切崩了

TPXS13 PGTW 051449
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH)
B. 05/1430Z
C. 14.34S
D. 106.27E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T3.5/4.0/W1.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN OW YIELDS
A DT OF 3.5. MET YIELDS 4.5 DUE TO SLOW WEAKENING TREND. PT YIELDS
3.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
05/1047Z 14.85S 106.90E SSMS
05/1124Z 14.90S 106.88E SSMS
RAE

逐渐惨不忍睹

我现在觉得裸了也不太要紧（别要命就行），主要是Taliah有的是时间重整旗鼓。
开场时怕整合不良和雨带，现在怕风切，之后又怕结构出问题，下垫面去世啥的，麻烦接踵而至，但死不掉就可以继续下去。只能说继续看吧，可能之后会像Freddy一样熬过风切就是广阔的印度洋，也可能是像某些远洋倒霉货一样令人情绪复杂。

14S TALIAH 250205 1800 14.8S 106.0E SHEM 60 984

TPXS13 PGTW 051823
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH)
B. 05/1730Z
C. 14.68S
D. 106.11E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T3.5/3.5/W1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. DENSE OVERCAST SHEARED 3NM
FROM LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 3.5. PT YIELDS 3.0. DBO
MET.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
TIMMERMAN

TXXS27 KNES 051812
TCSSIO
A. 14S (TALIAH)
B. 05/1730Z
C. 14.4S
D. 106.2E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F. T3.5/3.5
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...LLCC LOCATED <1/2 DEG FM A LARGE COLD OVC RESULTING IN A
DT OF 3.0. CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -89 C. MDT-STG ERLY SHEAR IMPACTING
SYSTEM. MET=4.0 AND PT=3.5. FT BASED ON PT DUE TO IRREG/PULSING
CONVECTION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...KONON

TPXS13 PGTW 052123
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH)
B. 05/2030Z
C. 14.81S
D. 105.57E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T3.0/3.5/W1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. DENSE OVERCAST SHEARED
21NM FROM LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET & PT YIELD 3.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
TIMMERMAN

NAME: TROPICAL CYCLONE TALIAH
IDENTIFIER: 14U
DATA AT: 1800 UTC
LATITUDE: 14.8S
LONGITUDE: 105.8E
LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 40NM (75 KM)
MOVEMENT TOWARDS: WEST NORTHWEST (296 DEG)
SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 7 KNOTS (13 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 50 KNOTS (95 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 70 KNOTS (130 KM/H)
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
FORECAST DATA
DATE/TIME : LOCATION : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND : CENTRAL
PRESSURE
(UTC) : DEGREES : NM (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA
+06: 06/0000: 15.0S 104.5E: 050 (095): 050 (095): 981
+12: 06/0600: 15.2S 103.1E: 055 (100): 050 (095): 984
+18: 06/1200: 15.4S 102.2E: 055 (105): 050 (095): 984
+24: 06/1800: 15.6S 101.0E: 060 (110): 050 (095): 985
+36: 07/0600: 15.9S 98.5E: 070 (130): 050 (095): 985
+48: 07/1800: 16.1S 96.1E: 080 (145): 060 (110): 978
+60: 08/0600: 15.9S 93.8E: 085 (155): 065 (120): 974
+72: 08/1800: 15.7S 92.0E: 085 (160): 070 (130): 969
+96: 09/1800: 15.2S 89.8E: 135 (250): 075 (140): 964
+120: 10/1800: 15.1S 88.2E: 175 (325): 075 (140): 963

TPXS13 PGTW 052348
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH)
B. 05/2330Z
C. 15.04S
D. 105.37E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T3.0/3.0/W1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. DENSE OVERCAST SHEARED
23NM FROM LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET & PT YIELD 3.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
05/1840Z 14.82S 105.90E GPMI
TIMMERMAN

14S TALIAH 250206 0000 14.9S 105.3E SHEM 55 984