台风吧 关注:287,666贴子:6,637,698

【讨论风暴】北太平洋NP12-20241213

取消只看楼主收藏回复

数值预报强烈看好,OPC已发布HFWW,可能冲击940-hPa


IP属地:内蒙古1楼2024-12-13 13:16回复
    ...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...
    .30 HOUR FORECAST LOW JUST W OF AREA NEAR 40N157E 972 MB. WITHIN
    480 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 13 TO 27 FT.
    .48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 47N171W 938 MB. WITHIN 240 NM S SEMICIRCLE
    WINDS 70 TO 100 KT. SEAS 24 TO 48 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 480 NM S
    SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 45 TO 70 KT. SEAS 20 TO
    40 FT...EXCEPT 13 TO 27 FT IN NW QUADRANT. ALSO WITHIN 1200 NM S
    SEMICIRCLE...AND 360 NM NW AND 600 NM NE QUADRANTS WINDS 30 TO 45
    KT. SEAS 13 TO 27 FT...EXCEPT 9 TO 18 FT IN NW AND NE QUADRANTS.


    IP属地:内蒙古4楼2024-12-13 13:22
    收起回复

      STORM WARNING.
      DEVELOPING LOW 1018 HPA
      AT 31N 134E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING ENE 25 KNOTS.
      EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 900 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST
      SEMICIRCLE AND 400 MILES ELSEWHERE WITHIN NEXT 24 HOURS.
      FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 33N 139E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
      MILES RADIUS.
      FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 38N 150E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 80
      MILES RADIUS.


      IP属地:内蒙古5楼2024-12-13 13:33
      收起回复
        注意到OPC上望100KT/938hPa,如果实现将会成为北太平洋有记录以来风速最强温带气旋之一。印象里以前还从来没看到过OPC预报北太平洋100KT大温气。


        IP属地:内蒙古6楼2024-12-13 13:43
        收起回复


          IP属地:内蒙古7楼2024-12-13 13:47
          回复







            IP属地:内蒙古8楼2024-12-13 14:00
            回复



              IP属地:内蒙古10楼2024-12-13 17:51
              回复
                EC和ICON均报出该温气可能刷出60m/s左右的阵风,GFS则报了50m/s阵风,这在北太平洋温气里面非常罕见




                IP属地:内蒙古11楼2024-12-13 18:00
                回复

                  ...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...
                  .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW JUST W OF AREA NEAR 40N156E 975 MB. WITHIN
                  720 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 8 TO 17 FT. ELSEWHERE
                  WITHIN 480 NM NE AND 900 NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS
                  8 TO 13 FT. ALSO WITHIN 960 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS
                  TO 12 FT.
                  .48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 50N172E 938 MB. WITHIN 240 NM S SEMICIRCLE
                  WINDS 70 TO 95 KT. SEAS 24 TO 48 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 480 NM S
                  SEMICIRCLE...AND 180 NM NW AND 360 NM NE QUADRANTS WINDS 45 TO 70
                  KT. SEAS 21 TO 42 FT...EXCEPT 13 TO 27 FT IN NW QUADRANT. ALSO
                  WITHIN 1260 NM S SEMICIRCLE...AND 300 NM NW AND 540 NM NE
                  QUADRANTS WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 27 FT...EXCEPT 9 TO 18 FT
                  IN NW AND NE QUADRANTS.


                  IP属地:内蒙古12楼2024-12-13 18:40
                  收起回复

                    STORM WARNING.
                    DEVELOPING LOW 1012 HPA
                    AT 31N 136E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING ENE 30 KNOTS.
                    EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST
                    SEMICIRCLE AND 600 MILES ELSEWHERE WITHIN NEXT 24 HOURS.
                    FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 34N 144E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
                    MILES RADIUS.
                    FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 40N 155E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 80
                    MILES RADIUS.
                    ——————————
                    LOW 1012 HPA AT 37N 136E EAST 15 KT.
                    ——————————
                    按照数值预报该温带气旋貌似可能是这两个系统合并而成,但是JMA目前分开算而且SW给了日本以南那个,而OPC只有北边那个。


                    IP属地:内蒙古13楼2024-12-13 18:41
                    回复








                      IP属地:内蒙古14楼2024-12-13 18:47
                      收起回复
                        各数值对NP12的阵风预报都非常高潮,不过持续风预报就没那么高了









                        IP属地:内蒙古15楼2024-12-13 19:29
                        回复

                          STORM WARNING.
                          DEVELOPING LOW 1008 HPA
                          AT 33N 138E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING ENE 30 KNOTS.
                          WARM FRONT FROM 33N 138E TO 32N 142E 30N 144E.
                          COLD FRONT FROM 33N 138E TO 30N 136E 28N 132E.
                          WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW WEST SEMICIRCLE AND 400
                          MILES ELSEWHERE.
                          EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 65 KNOTS WITHIN 1400 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST
                          SEMICIRCLE AND 500 MILES ELSEWHERE WITHIN NEXT 24 HOURS.
                          FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 38N 151E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
                          MILES RADIUS.
                          FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 42N 160E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 80
                          MILES RADIUS.
                          ANOTHER LOW 1008 HPA AT 37N 137E
                          MOVING EAST 15 KNOTS.


                          IP属地:内蒙古18楼2024-12-13 22:32
                          收起回复

                            ...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...
                            .18 HOUR FORECAST LOW W OF AREA 40N155E 972 MB. WITHIN 480 NM E
                            AND SE QUADRANTS WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
                            .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 42N161E 956 MB. WITHIN 120 NM S SEMICIRCLE
                            WINDS 70 TO 90 KT. SEAS 18 TO 34 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM
                            E...240 NM S...120 NM W...AND 180 NM N QUADRANTS WINDS 50 TO 65
                            KT. SEAS 11 TO 26 FT...HIGHEST IN S QUADRANT. ALSO W OF A LINE
                            FROM 32N160E TO 39N170E TO 43N170E TO 46N165E WINDS 40 TO 50 KT.
                            SEAS 10 TO 20 FT. OTHERWISE FROM 30N TO 46N W OF 176E WINDS 25
                            TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
                            .48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 52N173E 936 MB. BETWEEN 120 NM AND 360 NM
                            S QUADRANT WINDS 55 TO 75 KT. SEAS 30 TO 46 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
                            300 NM E...540 NM S AND SW...AND 360 NM NW AND N QUADRANTS...AND
                            WITHIN 120 NM NE OF A FRONT FROM 55N173E TO 49N174W TO 37N174W
                            WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 14 TO 34 FT...HIGHEST IN S QUADRANT.
                            ALSO NW OF A LINE FROM 30N171E TO 33N166W TO 56N169W WINDS 25 TO
                            40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 28 FT...HIGHEST S OF LOW CENTER.


                            IP属地:内蒙古20楼2024-12-14 00:30
                            收起回复
                              GFS本报上望持续80kt/阵风100kt/935hPa,略调强。注意GFS预报风速一直比其它数值略弱







                              IP属地:内蒙古21楼2024-12-14 01:05
                              回复