作为世界上唯一的超级大国，美国也许会认为自己在世界上这种“一览众山小”的地位是理所当然的。然而，回望大浪淘沙般的历史长河，你会看到辉煌，特别是某一个城市的辉煌，多么像萤火般转瞬即逝,也会为这种无常的兴替感到震惊。（As the world's only superpower, America may look today as if global domination is an entitlement. But if you look back at the sweep of history, it's striking how fleeting supremacy is, particularly for individual cities. ）

在我看来，公元前2000年之前世界上最重要城市是伊拉克的乌尔，公元前1500年之前，也许是埃及的底比斯。公元前1000年，很难说哪个城市有绝对优势，不过很多人会认为是黎巴嫩的西顿。公元前500年是波斯的波斯波利斯；公元1年是罗马；公元500年前后也许是中国的长安；公元1000年是中国的开封；公元1500年是意大利的佛罗伦萨，公元2000年是纽约；到了公元2500年，上述这些城市可能一个都不再能挨上边儿。（My vote for most important city in the world in the period leading up to 2000 B.C. would be Ur, Iraq. In 1500 B.C., perhaps Thebes, Egypt. There was no dominant player in 1000 B.C., though one could make a case for Sidon, Lebanon. In 500 B.C., it would be Persepolis, Persia; in the year 1, Rome; around A.D. 500, maybe Changan, China; in 1000, Kaifeng, China; in 1500, probably Florence, Italy; in 2000, New York City; and in 2500, probably none of the above. ）

今天的开封肮脏贫穷，连个省会也不是，地位无足轻重，所以连机场都没有。这种破落相更让我们看清楚了财富聚散的无常。11世纪的开封是宋朝的首都，人口超过一百万人，而当时伦敦的人口只有15,000人左右。（Today Kaifeng is grimy and poor, not even the provincial capital and so minor it lacks even an airport. Its sad state only underscores how fortunes change. In the 11th century, when it was the capital of Song Dynasty China, its population was more than one million. In contrast, London's population then was about 15,000.）

北京的故宫博物院藏有一幅长达17英尺的古画清明上河图，展示了古代开封的繁华：街道上行人如织，摩肩擦踵，驼队载着商品沿着丝绸之路云集而来，茶楼酒肆熙熙攘攘，生意兴隆。（An ancient 17-foot painted scroll, now in the Palace Museum in Beijing, shows the bustle and prosperity of ancient Kaifeng. Hundreds of pedestrians jostle each other on the streets, camels carry merchandise in from the Silk Road, and teahouses and restaurants do a thriving business.）

开封的地位吸引了世界各地的人们，包括成百的犹太人。在今天的开封还可以看到一些犹太后裔，他们的面貌和一般中国人并无二致，却声称自己是犹太人，从来不吃猪肉。（Kaifeng's stature attracted people from all over the world, including hundreds of Jews. Even today, there are some people in Kaifeng who look like other Chinese but who consider themselves Jewish and do not eat pork.）

漫步在开封街头，我不停问讯当地居民为什么一个曾经的国际大都会却沦落到如此模样，从他们的回答里我听到了不少开封人对纽约的羡慕。有一个男子说他准备偷渡到美国，给一个人蛇集团交了25,000美元。不过，当地的许多人坚持认为，中国已经上了路，正在朝着恢复自己的大国地位的目标迈进。（As I roamed the Kaifeng area, asking local people why such an international center had sunk so low, I encountered plenty of envy of New York. One man said he was arranging to be smuggled into the U.S. illegally, by paying a gang $25,000, but many local people insisted that China is on course to bounce back and recover its historic role as world leader.）

“中国越来越红火。”开封市郊一位名叫王瑞娜（译音）年轻农妇说，“再过几十年，我们就会赶上美国，说不定还能超过美国呢！”（"China is booming now," said Wang Ruina, a young peasant woman on the outskirts of town. "Give us a few decades and we'll catch up with the U.S., even pass it." ）

教训之一是保持科技活力，实行正确的经济政策。古代中国繁荣的原因之一，是采取促进经济增长，促进贸易往来的政策，鼓励技术创新，如铁铧犁、印刷术、纸币等方面的技术革新。等到后来中国重农轻商，它的个人所得便不再增长了，一停就停了六百年。教训之二是要避免狂妄自大。当时的中国认为无须向外国学习——中国的衰败也就从此开始了。（One lesson is the importance of sustaining a technological edge and sound economic policies. Ancient China flourished partly because of pro-growth, pro-trade policies and technological innovations like curved iron plows, printing and paper money. But then China came to scorn trade and commerce, and per capita income stagnated for 600 years.）


从这两方面看，我都为美国捏一把汗。美国目前经济管理懈怠，无法解决农业补助或长期预算赤字问题。技术虽然领先，但公立中小学学生的数学和科学水平只能算作二流。美国人对外国缺乏兴趣，这与中国人勉力进取、发奋向上、意志坚定的面貌形成了鲜明对比。中国人就是靠这种斗志再次走向了世界的前沿。（A second lesson is the danger of hubris, for China concluded it had nothing to learn from the rest of the world - and that was the beginning of the end. I worry about the U.S. in both regards. Our economic management is so lax that we can't confront farm subsidies or long-term budget deficits. Our technology is strong, but American public schools are second-rate in math and science. And Americans' lack of interest in the world contrasts with the restlessness, drive and determination that are again pushing China to the forefront.）


在黄河边上，我遇到了一个70岁的农民，名叫郝望（译音），一天学也没有上过，连自己的名字都不会写，但他的儿孙辈却大不一样了。（Beside the Yellow River I met a 70-year-old peasant named Hao Wang, who had never gone to a day of school. He couldn't even write his name - and yet his progeny were different.）
“俺家俩孙娃儿都上了大学，”他得意地说。说完，又开始谈论家里的电脑。（"Two of my grandsons are now in university," he boasted, and then he started talking about the computer in his home.）

思考开封的兴衰，使我们猛醒。我们应该不懈奋斗，改进我们的高技术创新力，增强教育实力，改善促进经济增长的政策。如果我们在经济繁荣的桂冠下流连不前，即使像纽约这样伟大的城市，也总有一天会堕落为哈得逊河上的开封。（Thinking of Kaifeng should stimulate us to struggle to improve our high-tech edge, educational strengths and pro-growth policies. For if we rest on our laurels, even a city as great as New York may end up as Kaifeng-on-the-Hudson.）　

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