23S HONDE 250226 1200 23.7S 39.2E SHEM 55 982

可惜纬度有点高了，海温不太够，不然哪怕是大烂眼也能救的回来，康妮刚开始卷眼的时候也挺烂的

预报会和马岛东侧系统藤原，在海峡打转，同时持续低风切，有看头
不过目前的rmw似乎对下垫面不是很友好（如果真的发展起来的话

TPXS11 PGTW 261539
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HONDE)
B. 26/1430Z
C. 23.89S
D. 39.33E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. EYE WITH A BAND WIDTH OF 100NM
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. SUBTRACTED 1.0 FOR A RAGGED EYE TO YIELD A DT
OF 4.0. MET YIELDS 3.0. PT YIELDS 3.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
26/1022Z 23.50S 38.87E ATMS
26/1114Z 23.32S 38.53E ATMS
26/1129Z 23.52S 38.85E AMS2
LINDGREN

1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE)
2.A POSITION 2025/02/26 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.9 S / 39.8 E
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/27 06 UTC: 24.5 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 360 SW: 360 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 195 SW: 205 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 55
24H: 2025/02/27 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 390 SW: 335 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SW: 215 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65
36H: 2025/02/28 06 UTC: 25.4 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 360 SW: 360 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
48H: 2025/02/28 18 UTC: 25.7 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 405 SW: 445 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SW: 215 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
60H: 2025/03/01 06 UTC: 25.8 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 370 SW: 315 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
72H: 2025/03/01 18 UTC: 26.3 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 400 SW: 335 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 55
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/02 18 UTC: 27.0 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 350 SW: 295 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
120H: 2025/03/03 18 UTC: 27.6 S / 45.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 335 SW: 345 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 90

23S HONDE 250226 1800 24.0S 39.8E SHEM 60 981

TPXS11 PGTW 261821
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HONDE)
B. 26/1730Z
C. 24.08S
D. 39.49E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .8 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
SWANSON

TXXS26 KNES 261735
TCSSIO
A. 23S (HONDE)
B. 26/1700Z
C. 24.0S
D. 39.4E
E. THREE/MET-9
F. T3.5/3.5
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...10/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.5. THE MET IS 2.5. THE PT
IS 3.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE 6 HOUR AVERAGE DT OF 3.5, WHICH JUSTIFIES
BREAKING CONSTRAINTS.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
26/1400Z 23.9S 39.0E SSMIS
...TURK

TPXS11 PGTW 262111
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HONDE)
B. 26/2030Z
C. 23.95S
D. 39.85E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .8 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET YIELDS 4.0. PT YIELDS 3.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
26/1558Z 23.98S 39.52E SARI
26/1633Z 24.28S 39.83E GPMI
SWANSON