23S HONDE 250301 0000 27.1S 45.7E SHEM 70 967

还是好大一只

TPXS11 PGTW 010338
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HONDE)
B. 01/0300Z
C. 26.70S
D. 45.03E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 34A/PBO LARGE EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY DG
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 4.5. MET YIELDS 4.0. PT
YIELDS 4.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
NEVAREZ

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：黄奕武 签发：向纯怡 2025 年 03 月 01 日 10 时
“洪德”向东南方向缓慢移动
时 间：1日08时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“洪德”，HONDE
中心位置：南纬26.6度、东经44.8度
强度等级：热带气旋
最大风力：12级（33米/秒，相当于我国的台风级）
中心气压：979百帕
参考位置：马达加斯加陶拉纳鲁西南方向约280公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“洪德”强度维持不变
预报结论：“洪德”将以5公里左右的速度向东南方向缓慢移动，强度变化不大。
图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年03月01日08时00分）

眼好像缩了

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (HONDE)
2.A POSITION 2025/03/01 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.6 S / 44.8 E
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 979 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/01 12 UTC: 26.8 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 295 SW: 400 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 195 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 55
24H: 2025/03/02 00 UTC: 27.2 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 335 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 195 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 55
36H: 2025/03/02 12 UTC: 27.4 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 215 SW: 350 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 175 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 45
48H: 2025/03/03 00 UTC: 27.6 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 270 SW: 380 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 205 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 45
60H: 2025/03/03 12 UTC: 28.0 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 370 SW: 445 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 45
72H: 2025/03/04 00 UTC: 28.7 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 465 SW: 445 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 45
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/05 00 UTC: 31.8 S / 46.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 435 SW: 350 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 285 SW: 240 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 55 NW: 35
120H: 2025/03/06 00 UTC: 36.8 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 530 SE: 470 SW: 360 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 305 SW: 260 NW: 205

马大夫妙手回春啊

对比

妙手回春

TPXS11 PGTW 010623
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HONDE)
B. 01/0545Z
C. 26.48S
D. 44.92E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T4.0/4.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 36A/PBO LARGE EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY OW
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 4.0. MET YIELDS 4.5. PT
YIELDS 4.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
NEVAREZ

TXXS26 KNES 010547
TCSSIO
A. 23S (HONDE)
B. 01/0500Z
C. 26.6S
D. 45.1E
E. ONE/MET-9
F. T4.5/4.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY AND EMBEDDED IN MG YIELDS A DT OF
4.5. THE MET AND PT ARE 4.5 BASED ON A DEVELOPMENT TREND OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...COVERDALE

23S HONDE 250301 0600 26.8S 45.2E SHEM 65 970

TPXS11 PGTW 010924
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HONDE)
B. 01/0546Z
C. 26.63S
D. 45.19E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T4.0/4.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 36A/PBO LARGE EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY OW
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 4.0. MET YIELDS 4.5. PT
YIELDS 4.0. DBO DT. RE-EVALUTATION FOR POSITION USING MICROWAVE.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
NEVAREZ