这货有点belal味，但比那个好，上望c4，能不能c5看运↑气↓

西侧和北侧还差点 发展很快了

风切应该有所缓解

TXXS25 KNES 261744
TCSSIO
A. 22S (GARANCE)
B. 26/1700Z
C. 17.6S
D. 54.5E
E. THREE/MET-9
F. T4.5/4.5
G. IR/EIR/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...16/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 4.5. PT AGREES WHILE MET
IS 4.0 BASED ON A RAPID DEVELOPMENT TREND. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
26/1420Z 17.6S 54.3E SSMIS
...TURK

B

和楼上底层时间对应，结构比较健康，已有C2实力

CIMSS AMSU: 965 hPa 90 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 02261550

TPXS12 PGTW 261816
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (GARANCE)
B. 26/1730Z
C. 17.68S
D. 54.54E
E. THREE/MET9
F. T4.0/4.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 13A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.1 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 4.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
SWANSON

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GARANCE)
2.A POSITION 2025/02/26 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 54.8 E
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/27 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 55.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
24H: 2025/02/27 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
36H: 2025/02/28 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SW: 110 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 30
48H: 2025/02/28 18 UTC: 24.6 S / 54.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 155 SW: 95 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35
60H: 2025/03/01 06 UTC: 27.7 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 0 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SW: 0 NW: 0
72H: 2025/03/01 18 UTC: 30.2 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SW: 0 NW: 0
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/02 18 UTC: 32.7 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 175 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 0
120H: 2025/03/03 18 UTC: 32.9 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 0

22S GARANCE 250226 1800 17.8S 54.7E SHEM 75 977