TROPICAL CYCLONE SERU [SEH-ROO] CENTRE 992HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9S
171.6E AT 261800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR
THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 270600 UTC 23.1S 172.4E MOV SSE AT 07 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 271800 UTC 23.8S 173.3E MOV SE AT 06 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 280600 UTC 24.2S 174.2E MOV SE AT 05 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 281800 UTC 24.3S 175.0E MOV SE AT 05 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

21P SERU 250226 1800 21.5S 171.2E SHEM 50 993

TPPS13 PGTW 261813
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21P (SERU)
B. 26/1730Z
C. 21.50S
D. 171.30E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T3.0/3.0/W0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED 34NM IN SHEARED
DENSE OVERCAST YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. MET YIELDS 2.5. PT YIELDS 3.0.
DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
SWANSON

TXPS24 KNES 261810
TCSWSP
A. 21P (SERU)
B. 26/1730Z
C. 21.5S
D. 170.5E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F. T3.0/3.0
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/PRXY/AMSR2
H. REMARKS...LOW CONFIDENCE IN CENTER LOCATION WITH CENTER ESTIMATED
TO BE ON WESTERN EDGE OF A LARGE COLD OVERCAST RESULTING IN A DT OF
3.0. THE PT AGREES WHILE THE MET IS 2.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER POSITION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
26/1411Z 20.9S 170.3E AMSR2
...TURK

TPPS13 PGTW 262115
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21P (SERU)
B. 26/2030Z
C. 21.66S
D. 171.32E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T3.0/3.0/W0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED 40NM IN SHEARED DENSE
OVERCAST YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. MET YIELDS 2.5. PT YIELDS 3.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
SWANSON

TXPS43 PHFO 262325
TCSSP3
SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
2320 UTC WED FEB 26 2025
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SERU (10F/21P)
B. 26/2300Z
C. 21.7S
D. 170.8E
E. HIMAWARI-9
F. T3.0/3.5/W1.0/24 HRS
G. VIS/IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...SHEAR PATTERN. LLCC IS LESS THAN 3/4° INTO DG
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
$$
KINO

TPPS13 PGTW 270013
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21P (SERU)
B. 26/2330Z
C. 21.86S
D. 170.84E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.5/3.0/W1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED 10NM IN
SHEARED DENSE OVERCAST YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT YIELD 2.5.
DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
26/1845Z 21.65S 171.02E SSMS
SWANSON

TXPS24 KNES 270034
TCSWSP
A. 21P (SERU)
B. 26/2330Z
C. 22.0S
D. 171.1E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F. T2.5/3.0
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...CIRCULARLY DEFINED LLCC GREATER THAN 1.25 DEGREES FROM COLD
OVERCAST YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. THE MET AND PT ARE 2.5. THE FT IS BASED ON
THE MET BECAUSE THE CLOUD FEATURES ARE NOT CLEAR CUT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...GATLING

SH, 21, 2025022700, , BEST, 0, 219S, 1710E, 45, 994, TS,

TROPICAL CYCLONE SERU [SEH-ROO] CENTRE 993HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1S
170.9E AT 270000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI VIS/EIR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE
MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 04 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR
THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS.

TPPS13 PGTW 270320
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21P (SERU)
B. 27/0300Z
C. 21.97S
D. 170.80E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. TIGHTLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF 2.5. MET
YIELDS 2.0. PT YIELDS 2.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
26/2240Z 21.65S 170.83E MMHS
HUYNH

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：宋佳凝 签发：向纯怡 2025 年 02 月 27 日 10 时
“塞鲁”向南偏东方向移动
时 间：27日08时（北京时）
海 域：南太平洋
命 名：“塞鲁”，SERU
中心位置：南纬22.1度、东经170.9度
强度等级：一级热带气旋
最大风力：8级（20米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）
中心气压：993百帕
参考位置：斐济苏瓦西偏南方向约900公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“塞鲁”由11级减弱到8级
预报结论：“塞鲁”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向南偏东方向移动，强度变化不大。

图5 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年02月27日08时00分）