1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (TALIAH)
2.A POSITION 2025/02/16 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.8 S / 79.1 E
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/17 06 UTC: 29.4 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 0
24H: 2025/02/17 18 UTC: 30.2 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 345 SW: 215 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 0
36H: 2025/02/18 06 UTC: 31.1 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 325 SW: 315 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 0
48H: 2025/02/18 18 UTC: 31.4 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 335 SW: 315 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 55
60H: 2025/02/19 06 UTC: 31.3 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 220 SW: 250 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 0
72H: 2025/02/19 18 UTC: 30.8 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 260 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 0
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/20 18 UTC: 32.0 S / 72.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 270 SW: 150 NW: 110
120H: 2025/02/21 18 UTC: 36.2 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 220 SW: 280 NW: 250

14S TALIAH 250216 1800 28.9S 79.1E SHEM 45 990
14S TALIAH 250216 1200 28.3S 79.9E SHEM 45 989
14S TALIAH 250216 0600 27.3S 81.0E SHEM 45 989
14S TALIAH 250216 0000 26.6S 81.8E SHEM 50 983

TPXS13 PGTW 161808
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH)
B. 16/1730Z
C. 28.90S
D. 79.64E
E. SIX/MET9
F. T2.0/2.0/W0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC LOCATED WITHIN
75NM OF OVERCAST LESS THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. MET
YIELDS 2.5. PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
16/1226Z 28.22S 80.25E SMOS
16/1312Z 28.77S 80.15E SSMS
SWANSON

TPXS13 PGTW 162052
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH)
B. 16/2030Z
C. 29.06S
D. 78.65E
E. SIX/MET9
F. T2.0/2.0/W0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC LOCATED WITHIN
75NM OF OVERCAST LESS THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. MET
YIELDS 2.5. PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
SWANSON

TPXS13 PGTW 162052
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH)
B. 16/2030Z
C. 29.06S
D. 78.65E
E. SIX/MET9
F. T2.0/2.0/W0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC LOCATED WITHIN
75NM OF OVERCAST LESS THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. MET
YIELDS 2.5. PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
SWANSON

TPXS13 PGTW 170004
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH)
B. 16/2330Z
C. 29.24S
D. 78.29E
E. SIX/MET9
F. T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC LOCATED WITHIN
75NM OF OVERCAST LESS THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. MET
YIELDS 2.5. PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO MET.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
16/1942Z 29.58S 79.32E ATMS
SWANSON

14S TALIAH 250217 0000 29.1S 78.2E SHEM 45 990

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：吕心艳 签发：向纯怡 2025 年 02 月 17 日 10 时
“塔利亚”将向西南方向移动
时 间：17日08时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“塔利亚”，TALIAH
中心位置：南纬29.1度、东经78.4度
强度等级：热带风暴
最大风力：8级（20米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）
中心气压：993百帕
参考位置：毛里求斯路易港东偏南方向约2310公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“塔利亚”由9级减弱到8级
预报结论：“塔利亚”将以每小时10-15公里的速度向西南方向移动，强度变化不大。

图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年02月17日08时00分）

He who laughs last, laughs best.

马上转温气了

TPXS13 PGTW 170314
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH)
B. 17/0230Z
C. 29.21S
D. 78.04E
E. SIX/MET9
F. T2.0/2.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES LOCATED WITHIN 75NM OF COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.5. MET
YIELDS 2.5. PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
16/2229Z 29.00S 78.50E SSMS
NEVAREZ

中心附近又爆了点对流，显示自己还活着（