13S THIRTEEN 250203 0000 16.2S 95.7E SHEM 45 985

TPXS12 PGTW 030005
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (SW OF COCOS ISLANDS)
B. 02/2330Z
C. 16.20S
D. 96.56E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .60 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 2.5. PT AGREES WITH DT. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
02/1837Z 15.43S 97.08E ATMS
PETERSEN

13S THIRTEEN 250203 0000 16.0S 96.2E SHEM 50 984

TXXS22 KNES 030035
TCSSIO
A. 13S (NONAME)
B. 02/2330Z
C. 15.8S
D. 96.0E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F. T3.0/3.0
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...7/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT=3.0. THE MET AND PT AGREE. THE
FT IS BASED ON THE MET SINCE CLOUD FEATURES ARE NOT CLEAR-CUT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...LEE

锯齿

IDW24010
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:44 am WST on Monday 3 February 2025
Tropical Cyclone Vince (Category 1) was located at 8:00 am AWST near 16.2S
96.3E, that is 450 km south of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands and moving west
southwest at 17 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Vince is located well south of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. It
is forecast to continue moving towards the west southwest while strengthening
further. Tropical Cyclone Vince is expected to move out of the Australian
region on Tuesday.
No direct impacts are expected at the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.
The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 3:00 pm AWST Monday 03 February.

恭喜命名Vince（文斯）澳洲区的Vince上一次使用是一个真平淡无奇的水货 而Vince05年在北大使用是一个超高纬脱水飓风 期待这次的Vince会有良好的表现

这几天估计发展不会太快
2月7日以后风切窗口期，应该会好很多

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：宋佳凝 签发：向纯怡 2025 年 02 月 03 日 10 时
澳大利亚附近海域一级热带气旋“文斯”生成
时 间：3日08时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“文斯”，VINCE
中心位置：南纬16.2度、东经96.3度
强度等级：一级热带气旋
最大风力：8级（20米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）
中心气压：990百帕
参考位置：澳大利亚西澳大利亚州卡拉萨偏北方向约2200公里的洋面上
变化过程： “文斯”今天生成
预报结论：“文斯” 将以每小时10~15公里的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度逐渐增强。

图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年02月03日08时00分）

TPXS12 PGTW 030326
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE)
B. 03/0230Z
C. 16.10S
D. 95.63E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .85 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. BOTH MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
02/2316Z 15.90S 96.32E SSMS
02/2350Z 16.02S 96.18E SMOS
LINDGREN

目前大致底层状况
东侧受风且影响卷绕可能比较缓慢