11S ELEVEN 250130 0600 16.0S 70.6E SHEM 40 996

新中心怕是都药丸

1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7
2.A POSITION 2025/01/30 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 70.4 E
MOVEMENT: WEST 16 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/30 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 305 SW: 230 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 95
24H: 2025/01/31 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 305 SW: 240 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95
36H: 2025/01/31 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 100
48H: 2025/02/01 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 325 SW: 250 NW: 150
60H: 2025/02/01 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
72H: 2025/02/02 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/03 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 55.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
120H: 2025/02/04 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 350 SW: 280 NW: 195

不愧是理可的贴子（嗯？

切

TPXS11 PGTW 300916
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (SW OF DIEGO GARCIA)
B. 30/0830Z
C. 16.45S
D. 70.44E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T2.5/2.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVTN WRAPS .5 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
DARLOW

目前集系认为南下的成员基本都不支持发展，而另一部分支持登陆马岛的成员普遍认为能在登岛前爆发，而路径越北报得越强。
比如GFS新报就报出11S在登陆马岛前转了个圈，利用这个机会完成爆发，巅峰971。
大致路径如下

TPXS11 PGTW 301212
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (SW OF DIEGO GARCIA)
B. 30/1130Z
C. 16.62S
D. 69.94E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .5 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS 3.0. PT YIELDS 2.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
SWANSON

TXXS29 KNES 301222
TCSSIO
A. 11S (NONAME)
B. 30/1130Z
C. 16.5S
D. 70.3E
E. THREE/MET-9
F. T2.0/2.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES LOCATED GREATER THAN 75NM
FROM A LARGE COLD OVERCAST YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. THE MET IS 1.5 BASED ON A
SLOW DEVELOPMENT TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS 2.0. THE FT IS
BASED ON THE PT SINCE THERE WAS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LLCC POSITION
AND A PATTERN ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...COVERDALE

11S ELEVEN 250130 1200 16.6S 69.9E SHEM 35 999
11S ELEVEN 250130 0600 16.3S 71.2E SHEM 35 996