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回复:【讨论旋风】南太平洋旋风2025-Pita

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从云图看起来感觉底层眼都要围好了


IP属地:广东来自iPhone客户端18楼2025-01-10 18:57
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    IP属地:福建19楼2025-01-10 19:00
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      结构有点一言难尽,围底层眼什么的还是再等会吧


      IP属地:北京20楼2025-01-10 19:05
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        TXPS41 PHFO 101127
        TCSSP1
        SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
        NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
        1127 UTC FRI JAN 10 2025
        A. TROPICAL CYCLONE PITA (04F/98P)
        B. 10/1100Z
        C. 18.5S
        D. 172.2W
        E. GOES-18
        F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS
        G. IR/EIR
        H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS 0.40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT
        OF 2.5. PT AND MET AGREE. FT BASED ON DT.
        I. ADDL POSITIONS
        NONE.
        $$
        JELSEMA


        IP属地:福建21楼2025-01-10 20:18
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          TPPS10 PGTW 101245
          A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (PITA)
          B. 10/1130Z
          C. 18.07S
          D. 172.24W
          E. FIVE/GOES18
          F. T1.5/1.5 STT: S0.0/03HRS
          G. IR/EIR
          H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .3 ON
          LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
          I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
          SWANSON


          IP属地:福建22楼2025-01-10 20:54
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            SH, 98, 2025011012, , BEST, 0, 185S, 1722W, 25, 1002, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1004, 150, 90, 0, 0, P, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,


            IP属地:广东23楼2025-01-10 21:12
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              TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
              Jan 101314 UTC.
              TROPICAL CYCLONE PITA CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4S 172.5W AT
              101200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR IMAGERY AND
              PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
              19 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
              AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.
              EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 170 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
              AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
              AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
              AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
              CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT NEAR THE LLCC WITH PRIMARY BAND TRYING
              TO WRAP ONTO SUPPOSED LLCC FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS IN A LOW
              SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND OUTFLOW.
              ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED. SST IS AROUND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS.
              DVORAK ANALYSIS IS BASED ON CURVED PATTERN WITH DT OF 2.5, DEVELOPING
              TREND WHICH GIVES A MET OF 3.0. PAT AGREES WITH MET. FT BASED ON PT,
              THUS YIELDS T3.0/2.5/D1.0/24HRS.
              FORECASTS :
              AT 12 HRS VALID AT 110000 UTC 19.2S 169.1W MOV AT KT WITH 40 KT
              CLOSE TO CENTRE
              AT 24 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 19.8S 165.7W MOV AT KT WITH 45 KT
              CLOSE TO CENTRE
              OUTLOOK :
              AT 36 HRS VALID AT 120000 UTC 20.6S 162.3W MOV AT KT WITH 40 KT
              CLOSE TO CENTRE
              AT 48 HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC 21.1S 159.3W MOV AT KT WITH 40 KT
              CLOSE TO CENTRE
              THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON PITA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
              102000 UTC.


              IP属地:上海24楼2025-01-10 21:23
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                IP属地:福建25楼2025-01-10 21:24
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                  TXPS26 KNES 101348
                  TCSWSP
                  CCA
                  A. PITA (98P)
                  B. 10/1130Z
                  C. 18.2S
                  D. 171.2E
                  E. THREE/GOES-W
                  F. T3.0/3.0
                  G. IR/EIR/SWIR
                  H. REMARKS...COR FOR RI/STLT USED. 8/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF
                  3.5. SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED LAST 6 HR. 0940Z GMI PASS SHOWED
                  SOLID INNER CORE BANDING. 6 HR AVG GIVES A DT OF 3.1 WHICH JUSTIFIES
                  BREAKING CONSTRAINTS. MINIATURE TC. POLEWARD UPR-LVL OUTFLOW CHANNEL
                  EXCELLENT. MET=1.5 AND PT=2.0. FT BASED ON 6 HR AVG DT.
                  I. ADDL POSITIONS
                  NIL
                  ...KONON


                  IP属地:福建27楼2025-01-10 22:03
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                    恭喜南太结束11个月空旋,(23.2-24.1)下次继续


                    IP属地:湖北28楼2025-01-10 22:04
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                      TPPS10 PGTW 101541
                      A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (PITA)
                      B. 10/1430Z
                      C. 18.67S
                      D. 170.13W
                      E. FIVE/GOES18
                      F. T1.5/1.5 STT: S0.0/03HRS
                      G. IR/EIR
                      H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .3 ON
                      LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT YIELD 1.5. DBO DT.
                      I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
                      SWANSON


                      IP属地:福建29楼2025-01-11 00:26
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                        98P INVEST 250110 1200 18.5S 172.2W SHEM 35 991
                        98P INVEST 250110 0600 18.0S 173.4W SHEM 35 991


                        IP属地:湖北来自Android客户端30楼2025-01-11 00:41
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                          IP属地:福建31楼2025-01-11 01:45
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                            TXPS41 PHFO 101723
                            TCSSP1
                            SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
                            NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
                            1715 UTC FRI JAN 10 2025
                            A. TROPICAL CYCLONE PITA (04F/98P)
                            B. 10/1700Z
                            C. 19.1S
                            D. 169.7W
                            E. GOES-18
                            F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS
                            G. IR/EIR
                            H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS 0.80 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT
                            OF 3.5. MET IS 3.0 AND PT IS 4.0. FT BASED ON DT WITH CONSTRAINTS
                            HOLDING TO 3.0.
                            I. ADDL POSITIONS
                            NONE.
                            $$
                            FOSTER


                            IP属地:福建32楼2025-01-11 01:55
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                              TPPS10 PGTW 101749
                              A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (PITA)
                              B. 10/1730Z
                              C. 18.94S
                              D. 170.50W
                              E. FIVE/GOES18
                              F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/18HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
                              G. IR/EIR
                              H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 0.35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
                              YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET YIELDS 1.5. PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO DT.
                              I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
                              DESSINO


                              IP属地:福建33楼2025-01-11 01:56
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