往西撞莫桑比克，往东擦马达加斯加岛，走位要求有点高，希望莫峡暖水派上用场

02Z SAR修正，00Z应该有75

1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI)
2.A POSITION 2025/01/11 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0 S / 49.4 E
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/12 06 UTC: 13.6 S / 46.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 85
24H: 2025/01/12 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 35
36H: 2025/01/13 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35
48H: 2025/01/13 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45
60H: 2025/01/14 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
72H: 2025/01/14 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 140 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/15 18 UTC: 23.9 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 260 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 65
120H: 2025/01/16 18 UTC: 28.7 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 215 SW: 335 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

SH, 07, 2025011018, , BEST, 0, 133S, 541E, 60, 994, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 60, 40, 30, 1008, 200, 20, 70, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, DIKELEDI, M,
SH, 07, 2025011018, , BEST, 0, 133S, 541E, 60, 994, TS, 50, NEQ, 40, 40, 30, 20, 1008, 200, 20, 70, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, DIKELEDI, M,

SH, 07, 2025011106, , BEST, 0, 127S, 516E, 80, 986, TY, 34, NEQ, 35, 65, 110, 60, 1012, 280, 10, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, DIKELEDI, M,
SH, 07, 2025011106, , BEST, 0, 127S, 516E, 80, 986, TY, 50, NEQ, 25, 55, 35, 25, 1012, 280, 10, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, DIKELEDI, M,
SH, 07, 2025011106, , BEST, 0, 127S, 516E, 80, 986, TY, 64, NEQ, 20, 25, 30, 15, 1012, 280, 10, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, DIKELEDI, M,
SH, 07, 2025011112, , BEST, 0, 126S, 503E, 80, 981, TY, 34, NEQ, 35, 65, 110, 60, 1006, 125, 10, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, DIKELEDI, S,
SH, 07, 2025011112, , BEST, 0, 126S, 503E, 80, 981, TY, 50, NEQ, 25, 55, 35, 25, 1006, 125, 10, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, DIKELEDI, S,
SH, 07, 2025011112, , BEST, 0, 126S, 503E, 80, 981, TY, 64, NEQ, 20, 25, 30, 15, 1006, 125, 10, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, DIKELEDI, S,
SH, 07, 2025011118, , BEST, 0, 129S, 490E, 75, 980, TY, 34, NEQ, 60, 85, 80, 75, 1007, 165, 10, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, DIKELEDI, D,
SH, 07, 2025011118, , BEST, 0, 129S, 490E, 75, 980, TY, 50, NEQ, 30, 30, 35, 35, 1007, 165, 10, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, DIKELEDI, D,
SH, 07, 2025011118, , BEST, 0, 129S, 490E, 75, 980, TY, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 20, 20, 1007, 165, 10, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, DIKELEDI, D,

TPXS12 PGTW 111811
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI)
B. 11/1730Z
C. 12.69S
D. 49.06E
E. THREE/MET9
F. T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 30A/PBO CDO OR EMB CNTR POS W MICROWAVE/ANMTN. LLCC
EMBEDDED IN LG YIELDS A DT OF 4.5. MET YIELDS 4.0. PT AGREES WITH
DT. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
PETERSEN

TXXS26 KNES 111803
TCSSIO
A. 07S (DIKELEDI)
B. 11/1730Z
C. 13.2S
D. 49.4E
E. THREE/MET-9
F. OVERLAND
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...DVORAK VALUES N/A DUE TO LLCC OVERLAND. 1529Z SSMIS PASS
SHOWED A DEFINED EYE JUST OFF COAST.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...KONON

TPXS12 PGTW 112106
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI)
B. 11/2030Z
C. 12.84S
D. 48.29E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN B YIELDS A
DT OF 5.0. MET AND PT YIELD 4.5. DBO PT. INTENSITY ESTIMATE MAY
NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
PETERSEN

出海

只能说是一言难尽了