TRANSVERSE BANDING AND ELONGATION
ARE EVIDENT ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES, AN INDICATION OF
ELEVATED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.小环流受高空环境影响挺大的，等过岛环境好转。。

07S DIKELEDI 250110 1800 13.3S 54.2E SHEM 55 994

唉

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (DIKELEDI)
2.A POSITION 2025/01/10 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.4 S / 54.1 E
MOVEMENT: WEST 15 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/11 06 UTC: 12.5 S / 51.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35
24H: 2025/01/11 18 UTC: 12.7 S / 49.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 35
36H: 2025/01/12 06 UTC: 13.3 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 0
48H: 2025/01/12 18 UTC: 13.9 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 120 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0
60H: 2025/01/13 06 UTC: 14.6 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 35
72H: 2025/01/13 18 UTC: 15.7 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/14 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SW: 215 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
120H: 2025/01/15 18 UTC: 23.5 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50

TXXS26 KNES 101839
TCSSIO
A. 07S (DIKELEDI)
B. 10/1730Z
C. 13.5S
D. 54.0E
E. THREE/MET-9
F. T3.5/3.5
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...8.5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.5. UPR-LVL OUTFLOW
GOOD N AND W QUADS. MET AND PT=3.5. FT BASED ON MET DUE TO IRREG/PULSING
CONVECTION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...KONON

TPXS12 PGTW 102102
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI)
B. 10/2030Z
C. 13.04S
D. 52.97E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN DG YIELDS A DT OF
4.0. MET/PT AGREES. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
10/1504Z 13.37S 54.78E TROP
10/1750Z 13.25S 54.08E MMHS
10/1858Z 13.28S 53.80E GPMI
DESSINO

TPXS12 PGTW 102355
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI)
B. 10/2330Z
C. 13.23S
D. 52.37E
E. THREE/MET9
F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 13A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN MG
YIELDS A DT OF 4.0. MET/PT AGREES. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
10/1858Z 13.28S 53.80E GPMI
DESSINO

TXXS26 KNES 110026
TCSSIO
A. 07S (DIKELEDI)
B. 10/2330Z
C. 13.2S
D. 52.4E
E. THREE/MET-9
F. T4.0/4.0
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...LLCC EMBEDDED IN DG YIELDS A DT OF 4.0. THE MET IS 3.5
BASED ON A SLOW DEVELOPMENT TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS
4.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LLCC
POSITION AND A PATTERN ADJUSTMENT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...COVERDALE

繼續捲繞，雨帶很漂亮，但給Dikeledi的時間似乎不多了


很強的對流

其实还可以

后期路径偏西没救了

07S DIKELEDI 250111 0000 13.1S 52.3E SHEM 65 988