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回复:【讨论旋风】南印度洋旋风SH052025

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结构整好了,不过RMW还是有点大


IP属地:广东来自Android客户端18楼2024-12-27 14:13
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    05S FIVE 241227 0600 11.8S 95.6E SHEM 35 1002


    IP属地:福建19楼2024-12-27 14:15
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      IP属地:福建20楼2024-12-27 14:55
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        TXXS22 KNES 270659
        TCSSIO
        A. 05S (NONAME)
        B. 27/0530Z
        C. 11.9S
        D. 95.7E
        E. THREE/GOES-E
        F. T1.5/2.0
        G. IR/EIR/VIS
        H. REMARKS...A LLCC CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES THAT
        LIES LESS THAN 1.25 DEGREES AWAY FROM A SMALL AREA OF ACTIVE CONVECTION
        RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. THE MET IS 1.5 BASED ON A STEADY TREND IN APPARENT
        INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS ALSO 1.5. THE FT IS BASED
        ON THE DT.
        I. ADDL POSITIONS
        NIL
        ...HOSLEY


        IP属地:福建21楼2024-12-27 15:10
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          TPXS10 PGTW 270852
          A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (SW OF COCOS ISLANDS)
          B. 27/0830Z
          C. 12.49S
          D. 96.44E
          E. FIVE/GK2A
          F. T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
          G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
          H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. DENSE OVERCAST SHEARED
          40NM FROM LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS 2.5. PT YIELDS 2.0.
          DBO DT.
          I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
          27/0454Z 11.68S 95.47E CWVR
          27/0728Z 11.87S 95.83E GPMI
          DESSINO


          IP属地:福建22楼2024-12-27 16:56
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            05S FIVE 241227 1200 12.7S 96.3E SHEM 35 1001


            IP属地:广东来自Android客户端23楼2024-12-27 19:30
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              所以99s被吞了吗?


              IP属地:辽宁来自Android客户端24楼2024-12-27 19:58
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                TPXS10 PGTW 271200
                A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (SW OF COCOS ISLANDS)
                B. 27/1130Z
                C. 13.02S
                D. 96.60E
                E. FIVE/GK2A
                F. T2.0/2.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
                G. IR/EIR
                H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. DENSE OVERCAST SHEARED
                39NM FROM LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS 2.5. PT YIELDS 2.0.
                DBO PT.
                I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
                27/0728Z 11.87S 95.83E GPMI
                SWANSON


                IP属地:福建25楼2024-12-27 20:10
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                  真的就平淡无奇的结束了吗?GFS:别害怕,我来帮你,会有救的(05S:左2)






                  IP属地:上海来自Android客户端26楼2024-12-27 20:14
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                    TXXS22 KNES 271249
                    TCSSIO
                    A. 05S (NONAME)
                    B. 27/1130Z
                    C. 13.1S
                    D. 96.0E
                    E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9
                    F. T2.0/2.0
                    G. IR/EIR/VIS
                    H. REMARKS...CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND A CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE
                    SMALL COLD CONVECTION RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.0. THE MET IS 2.0 BASED ON A
                    SLOW DEVELOPMENT TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS ALSO 2.0. THE FT
                    IS BASED ON THE MET DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXACT CENTER POSITION.
                    I. ADDL POSITIONS
                    NIL
                    ...BERTALAN


                    IP属地:福建27楼2024-12-27 20:51
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                      Details of Tropical Low 07U at 8:00 pm AWST:
                      Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
                      Location: within 55 kilometres of 12.4 degrees South, 96.3 degrees East , 60 kilometres west southwest of Cocos (Keeling) Islands .
                      Movement: southeast at 13 kilometres per hour .
                      Tropical Low 07U is starting to move south and away from the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, and should continue to weaken overnight.


                      IP属地:福建28楼2024-12-27 20:58
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                        GFS疯了吗?直接报四台共舞,其中还一个950,一个948,一个937


                        IP属地:浙江来自Android客户端29楼2024-12-27 21:07
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                          Tropical low 07U has failed to develop and is starting to weaken.
                          The system has been moving southeast over the last 6 hours, with its position
                          estimated from a 0921 UTC SSMIS pass and observations at Cocos Island Airport.
                          A shear pattern results in a DT of 1.0, however this is tenuous given that
                          there is only a small amount of deep convection left. The MET is 1.0, based on
                          a W- 24-hour trend, with PAT adjusted to 1.5. Final intensity (FT) is set at
                          1.5, with CI held at 2.0. Objective guidance provides the following estimates:
                          ADT 34 knots, AiDT 32 knots, DPRINT 27 knots, DMINT 27 knots, and SATCON 37
                          knots (all 1-minute winds). ASCAT data from 0243 UTC detected a small area of
                          35 knot winds in the southwest quadrant, but the system has since weakened, and
                          an AMSR2 pass at 0707 UTC suggested maximum winds were 30 knots.
                          The system intensity is estimated at 30 knots.
                          With the lack of gale force winds around the centre, lack of deep convection
                          and strong ENE wind shear, there is a Very Low chance that 07U will develop
                          into a tropical cyclone.
                          ==
                          There will be no further bulletins for this system.


                          IP属地:上海30楼2024-12-27 21:15
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                            IP属地:江苏来自Android客户端31楼2024-12-27 21:27
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                              05S FIVE 241227 1200 12.5S 96.4E SHEM 35 1001


                              IP属地:上海32楼2024-12-27 22:25
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