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the deep♂ dark♂ fantasy
（无端）

看了接近一天的对流，我现在已经能从VIS上判断哪里会爆发对流了，这个帖子至少1/4的评论是我贡献的

准备睡了，希望明天早上起床能看到28W

对流爆的倒是蛮强烈的，但是一直被切。而且这俩货互相压制，到后面估摸着一起切毙。

gfs认为12h成台

98W INVEST 241221 1800 5.6N 114.7E WPAC 20 1004

TPPN10 PGTW 211748
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W (NW OF BORNEO)
B. 21/1730Z
C. 4.98N
D. 114.00E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/21HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 0.30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET/PT AGREES. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
DESSINO

TXPQ27 KNES 211806
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98W)
B. 21/1730Z
C. 5.0N
D. 114.1E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F. T1.5/1.5
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...3.5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.0. THE MET AND PT ARE
1.5 BASED ON THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT TREND WITHIN THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THE
FT IS BASED ON THE MET SINCE BANDING FEATURES WERE NOT CLEAR CUT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...COVERDALE

TPPN10 PGTW 212051
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W (N OF BORNEO)
B. 21/2030Z
C. 5.51N
D. 114.23E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 0.30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET YIELDS 2.0. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
DESSINO

很可能是24年最终台，强度几何？