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看看Roger Eberts老爷子当年的预测，什么叫专家，业界反应、表演分析简单明了、一应俱全。
Renee Zellweger won the SAG Award, but gee, despite what I just said, do you think that means she'll win the Oscar? Her performance in "Chicago" is admirable up to a point, but unlike Catherine Zeta-Jones she is not an experienced dancer. Of course, her character, Roxy Hart, isn't supposed to be a talented performer--that's the whole point--but in the golden age of the Hollywood musical, even the untalented characters were brilliant at being untalented (see Jean Hagen as the hapless silent star in "Singin' in the Rain").
Salma Hayek has the role of a lifetime in "Frida," but the film got more respect than affection. Nicole Kidman embodies Virginia Woolf in "The Hours" with an immense, sad dignity, but has less screen time than co-stars Julianne Moore and Meryl Streep. Also, those viewers who do not already know the story of Virginia Woolf's death (and, believe me, they are legion) are less moved by her suicide than perhaps they should be. Yet she is considered the front-runner, not least because Hollywood admires the class with which she handled her divorce from Tom Cruise, and the flair with which her career has gone from one good choice to another.
That leaves Diane Lane, from "Unfaithful," and Julianne Moore, from "Far from Heaven." I would be pleased to see either woman win--slightly more pleased for Moore, because she faced the technical challenge of adopting a 1950s Hollywood studio-acting style, as well as the emotional challenge of a failed marriage and a forbidden love affair. I have a feeling Moore's vote will split between her two nominations and that Lane's picture has not been widely enough seen. So the winner will be Nicole Kidman.
Renee Zellweger won the SAG Award, but gee, despite what I just said, do you think that means she'll win the Oscar? Her performance in "Chicago" is admirable up to a point, but unlike Catherine Zeta-Jones she is not an experienced dancer. Of course, her character, Roxy Hart, isn't supposed to be a talented performer--that's the whole point--but in the golden age of the Hollywood musical, even the untalented characters were brilliant at being untalented (see Jean Hagen as the hapless silent star in "Singin' in the Rain").
Salma Hayek has the role of a lifetime in "Frida," but the film got more respect than affection. Nicole Kidman embodies Virginia Woolf in "The Hours" with an immense, sad dignity, but has less screen time than co-stars Julianne Moore and Meryl Streep. Also, those viewers who do not already know the story of Virginia Woolf's death (and, believe me, they are legion) are less moved by her suicide than perhaps they should be. Yet she is considered the front-runner, not least because Hollywood admires the class with which she handled her divorce from Tom Cruise, and the flair with which her career has gone from one good choice to another.
That leaves Diane Lane, from "Unfaithful," and Julianne Moore, from "Far from Heaven." I would be pleased to see either woman win--slightly more pleased for Moore, because she faced the technical challenge of adopting a 1950s Hollywood studio-acting style, as well as the emotional challenge of a failed marriage and a forbidden love affair. I have a feeling Moore's vote will split between her two nominations and that Lane's picture has not been widely enough seen. So the winner will be Nicole Kidman.
