2011年2月20日的一篇分析文章。
这里提到了示威人群有限，平均只有一两千人，看上去不足以威胁到政权。这和之前那篇文章的说法一致。然而此时驻外官员和一些部落首领却宣布叛变。我很怀疑，卡政权被＂人民＂推翻的说法并不可靠，民怨并没有想象中的那么大，真实原因是从内部瓦解了，尤其是驻外官员成了第一批叛国者，难说他们不是被事先渗透了。
卡扎菲不是被人民推翻的，是被外部势力和本国宿敌联合谋杀的，所以直到现在卡氏在利比亚仍然有民意基础。
有时候民众就是这么傻，被人盗用名义去干损害他们自己利益的事情，他们却是麻木的，毫无自知的，等到切身感受痛苦和绝望时才能醒悟，原来他们被欺骗了，被利用了。
Sent: Sunday, February 20, 2011 5:24:19 PM
Subject: FOR RAPID COMMENT/EDIT - LIBYA - SEIF AL ISLAM MAKES HIS MOVE
An unconfirmed report from Saudi-owned al Arabiya is claiming that Libyan
leader Muammar Ghaddafi fled the country Feb. 20. Qatar-based al Jazeera
is meanwhile claiming unspecified tribal leaders are telling Ghaddafi the
time has come for him to leave the country. The rumors follow another day
of heavy-handed crackdowns on opposition protests in the eastern Libyan
city of Benghazi and the spread of protests to the capital of Tripoli.
Though unrest in Libya appears to be escalating, the claims of Ghaddafi
fleeing or even seriously considering fleeing are highly suspect for a number of reasons.
Opposition protests in Libya have been largely concentrated in the east,
where tribal support for the Ghaddafi regime is traditionally lower.
Though protestors have sustained the demonstrations at great odds with
Libyan security forces, who have demonstrated a propensity to use live
ammunition in putting down the unrest, 【they do not appear to have swelled
in numbers to overwhelm the state. 】Information on the demonstration is
extremely scarce and subject to heavy spin by both the regime and the
opposition, 【but the size of the protests seems to have averaged in the low
thousands thus far, with most estimates ranging from 1,500 to 2,000
protestors at a time.】
这里提到了示威人群有限，平均只有一两千人，看上去不足以威胁到政权。这和之前那篇文章的说法一致。然而此时驻外官员和一些部落首领却宣布叛变。我很怀疑，卡政权被＂人民＂推翻的说法并不可靠，民怨并没有想象中的那么大，真实原因是从内部瓦解了，尤其是驻外官员成了第一批叛国者，难说他们不是被事先渗透了。
卡扎菲不是被人民推翻的，是被外部势力和本国宿敌联合谋杀的，所以直到现在卡氏在利比亚仍然有民意基础。
有时候民众就是这么傻，被人盗用名义去干损害他们自己利益的事情，他们却是麻木的，毫无自知的，等到切身感受痛苦和绝望时才能醒悟，原来他们被欺骗了，被利用了。
Sent: Sunday, February 20, 2011 5:24:19 PM
Subject: FOR RAPID COMMENT/EDIT - LIBYA - SEIF AL ISLAM MAKES HIS MOVE
An unconfirmed report from Saudi-owned al Arabiya is claiming that Libyan
leader Muammar Ghaddafi fled the country Feb. 20. Qatar-based al Jazeera
is meanwhile claiming unspecified tribal leaders are telling Ghaddafi the
time has come for him to leave the country. The rumors follow another day
of heavy-handed crackdowns on opposition protests in the eastern Libyan
city of Benghazi and the spread of protests to the capital of Tripoli.
Though unrest in Libya appears to be escalating, the claims of Ghaddafi
fleeing or even seriously considering fleeing are highly suspect for a number of reasons.
Opposition protests in Libya have been largely concentrated in the east,
where tribal support for the Ghaddafi regime is traditionally lower.
Though protestors have sustained the demonstrations at great odds with
Libyan security forces, who have demonstrated a propensity to use live
ammunition in putting down the unrest, 【they do not appear to have swelled
in numbers to overwhelm the state. 】Information on the demonstration is
extremely scarce and subject to heavy spin by both the regime and the
opposition, 【but the size of the protests seems to have averaged in the low
thousands thus far, with most estimates ranging from 1,500 to 2,000
protestors at a time.】
，想想他之前的所做所为，自己打脸爽不爽？二夫还提到了”向联合国求助“之类不太具体的方案。
