2017070400 13.9 -111.0 25 1009 LO INVEST 0

话说NHC的初报不会删前期路径。

nhc60%/60%

nhc 60%/60%

94E INVEST 170704 0600 14.4N 112.0W EPAC 25 1008

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure arealocated about 500 miles south of the southern tip of the BajaCalifornia peninsula continue to show signs of organization.This system has the potential to become a tropical depressionlater today or tomorrow before it reaches colder waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

虽然有坨对流，但是用npp的vis-night看，是裸的。12z定位在llcc附近
94E INVEST 170704 1200 16.0N 111.7W EPAC 25 1008

94E INVEST 170704 1800 16.7N 113.5W EPAC 30 1007

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALLTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMMTropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL500 PM PDT Tue Jul 4 2017For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressurearea located about 550 miles southwest of the southern tip of theBaja California peninsula has become a little better organizedduring the afternoon, but satellite data indicates that awell-defined circulation does not yet exist. This system still hasthe potential to become a tropical depression during the next day ortwo before it moves westward into a less favorable environment.* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

94E INVEST 170705 0000 16.8N 114.9W EPAC 30 1007

稍早前底层，空空如也...

WTPN21 PHNC 050200MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.7N 114.4W TO 18.3N 120.6WWITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFYISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSATIMAGERY AT 050000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATEDNEAR 16.8N 114.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14KNOTS.2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.8N 114.9E, APPROXIMATELY 985 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, CA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE BANDING DISPLACED TO THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 042208Z SSMIS 85GHZ IMAGE HIGHLIGHTS THE SHEARED CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM WITH SHALLOW BANDING ELSEWHERE WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED LLCC. A 041742Z ASCAT IMAGE SUPPORTS THE CENTRAL WINDS WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SST VALUES ARE BARELY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 26 TO 28C AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE TO STRONG. HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT SOURCE JUST TO THE WEST OF THIS SYSTEM THAT IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT OUTFLOW TO THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A WESTWARD TRACK WITH DIFFERRENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. IN VIEW OF THE EXCELLENT OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 060200Z.//NNNN