Cash and Crime
金钱和犯罪
“CASH”, wrote Marcus Felson, an outstanding American criminologist, “is the mother’s milk of crime.” Its appeal to criminals is clear. Unlike cars or paintings, it can be concealed immediately after being pinched. It has no security features to prevent its being easily and anonymously spent on legal or illegal goods. Unlike nearly any other object that can be stolen, it needs no fence.
杰出的美国犯罪学家马库斯·菲尔逊写到：“金钱滋生犯罪。”现金对罪犯的吸引非常明显。不像汽车或名画，偷来的现金很好藏匿。现金没有任何安全保障，很容易被匿名用在合法或非法的消费上。和其他容易被偷的东西不同，现金不需要遮挡物来防止被偷。
Criminals’ need for cash motivates much predatory street crime. A new paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research asks whether this might work in reverse： if cash motivates crime, could the absence of cash reduce crime? The answer seems to be yes.
罪犯对于现金的需求激发了路边抢劫的发生。美国国家经济研究局发表的最新文章提出这样的疑问：如果现金会激发犯罪，那么现金消失会减少犯罪吗？答案似乎是肯定的。
The paper looks at county-level crime data in Missouri from 1990 to 2011, a period when crime dropped markedly all over the rich world. During this time Missouri, like the rest of America, changed the way it delivered its welfare and food-stamp benefits. Instead of paper cheques states now use a debit-card system known as Electronic Benefit Transfer （EBT). Missouri introduced EBT cards in eight phases over 12 months. This gradual shift allowed the authors to analyse not just differences in crime rates before and after the introduction of EBT, but also how those differences compared with changes during the same period in counties that had not implemented it.
该文章研究了从1990年到2011年密苏里州的国家级犯罪信息，在这个期间该地区的犯罪活动锐减。在此期间，密苏里州和美国其他州一样，改变了其领取福利金和食品救济券的方式，从过去的领取支票变成了现在使用名为电子津贴转账的借记卡系统。密苏里州在一年内分8个阶段引进EBT系统，这种渐进变化使文章作者可以分析出引进EBT系统之前和之后的犯罪率的不同，并将这种变化与其他同时期内没有引进该系统的国家的犯罪率变化进行对比。
They found that electronic payments led to a drop of 9.8% in the overall crime rate and caused the rates of burglary, assault and larceny to fall by 7.9%, 12.5% and 9.6%, respectively. The introduction of EBT was also associated with a lower number of arrests, an indication that the crime rate’s decline did not stem from more aggressive policing. EBT’s effects on non-property-related crimes such as drug offences were statistically insignificant. The findings suggest, according to Volkan Topalli, one of the authors, that “for people in densely populated urban neighbourhoods, the less cash they have and the more their transactions are digitised, the less attractive criminal targets they make.”
文章指出电子支付使整体犯罪率下降了9.8%，使入室行窃案、袭击案和盗窃案的犯罪率分别下降了7.9%, 12.5% 和9.6%。EBT系统的引进还与低逮捕率联系在了一起，有迹象表明犯罪率的降低并不是应为警察更敬业。EBT系统对例如毒品犯罪的非财产犯罪率的影响并没有明显的统计数据上的改变。文章作者之一的沃尔坎·托帕利的调查显示，对于生活在人口密集的市区附近的人来说，携带越少的钱以及越常使用数字化交易，意味着他们越不容易成为犯罪对象。
It points to something broader, too. The sharp decline in crime since the 1990s has led to a rash of theories to explain it: ageing populations, higher incarceration and immigration rates, less exposure to lead paint, better police tactics as well as vastly improved security of both products and places Mr. Topalli’s paper suggests that the shift from cash to cards—since 1990 debit-card transactions have risen 27-fold, whereas cash volume has grown by just 4% a year—may also have contributed to the decline in crime. It’s hard to rip and run, after all, without something to rip.
该研究也指向了更广阔的范围。自从1990年犯罪活动的急剧下降，出现了一连串需要解释的推测：人口老龄化，高入监率和外来移民率，铅涂料的低接触，更高超的刑侦技术以及物品和房屋安全性的提高。托帕利的文章指出，从1990年开始借记卡交易上升了27倍，而一年内的现金流量只上涨了4%，这种从现金向借记卡转变的现象可能有助于犯罪的降低。小偷很难再去偷窃，毕竟没有现金可以被偷了。
金钱和犯罪
“CASH”, wrote Marcus Felson, an outstanding American criminologist, “is the mother’s milk of crime.” Its appeal to criminals is clear. Unlike cars or paintings, it can be concealed immediately after being pinched. It has no security features to prevent its being easily and anonymously spent on legal or illegal goods. Unlike nearly any other object that can be stolen, it needs no fence.
杰出的美国犯罪学家马库斯·菲尔逊写到：“金钱滋生犯罪。”现金对罪犯的吸引非常明显。不像汽车或名画，偷来的现金很好藏匿。现金没有任何安全保障，很容易被匿名用在合法或非法的消费上。和其他容易被偷的东西不同，现金不需要遮挡物来防止被偷。
Criminals’ need for cash motivates much predatory street crime. A new paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research asks whether this might work in reverse： if cash motivates crime, could the absence of cash reduce crime? The answer seems to be yes.
罪犯对于现金的需求激发了路边抢劫的发生。美国国家经济研究局发表的最新文章提出这样的疑问：如果现金会激发犯罪，那么现金消失会减少犯罪吗？答案似乎是肯定的。
The paper looks at county-level crime data in Missouri from 1990 to 2011, a period when crime dropped markedly all over the rich world. During this time Missouri, like the rest of America, changed the way it delivered its welfare and food-stamp benefits. Instead of paper cheques states now use a debit-card system known as Electronic Benefit Transfer （EBT). Missouri introduced EBT cards in eight phases over 12 months. This gradual shift allowed the authors to analyse not just differences in crime rates before and after the introduction of EBT, but also how those differences compared with changes during the same period in counties that had not implemented it.
该文章研究了从1990年到2011年密苏里州的国家级犯罪信息，在这个期间该地区的犯罪活动锐减。在此期间，密苏里州和美国其他州一样，改变了其领取福利金和食品救济券的方式，从过去的领取支票变成了现在使用名为电子津贴转账的借记卡系统。密苏里州在一年内分8个阶段引进EBT系统，这种渐进变化使文章作者可以分析出引进EBT系统之前和之后的犯罪率的不同，并将这种变化与其他同时期内没有引进该系统的国家的犯罪率变化进行对比。
They found that electronic payments led to a drop of 9.8% in the overall crime rate and caused the rates of burglary, assault and larceny to fall by 7.9%, 12.5% and 9.6%, respectively. The introduction of EBT was also associated with a lower number of arrests, an indication that the crime rate’s decline did not stem from more aggressive policing. EBT’s effects on non-property-related crimes such as drug offences were statistically insignificant. The findings suggest, according to Volkan Topalli, one of the authors, that “for people in densely populated urban neighbourhoods, the less cash they have and the more their transactions are digitised, the less attractive criminal targets they make.”
文章指出电子支付使整体犯罪率下降了9.8%，使入室行窃案、袭击案和盗窃案的犯罪率分别下降了7.9%, 12.5% 和9.6%。EBT系统的引进还与低逮捕率联系在了一起，有迹象表明犯罪率的降低并不是应为警察更敬业。EBT系统对例如毒品犯罪的非财产犯罪率的影响并没有明显的统计数据上的改变。文章作者之一的沃尔坎·托帕利的调查显示，对于生活在人口密集的市区附近的人来说，携带越少的钱以及越常使用数字化交易，意味着他们越不容易成为犯罪对象。
It points to something broader, too. The sharp decline in crime since the 1990s has led to a rash of theories to explain it: ageing populations, higher incarceration and immigration rates, less exposure to lead paint, better police tactics as well as vastly improved security of both products and places Mr. Topalli’s paper suggests that the shift from cash to cards—since 1990 debit-card transactions have risen 27-fold, whereas cash volume has grown by just 4% a year—may also have contributed to the decline in crime. It’s hard to rip and run, after all, without something to rip.
该研究也指向了更广阔的范围。自从1990年犯罪活动的急剧下降，出现了一连串需要解释的推测：人口老龄化，高入监率和外来移民率，铅涂料的低接触，更高超的刑侦技术以及物品和房屋安全性的提高。托帕利的文章指出，从1990年开始借记卡交易上升了27倍，而一年内的现金流量只上涨了4%，这种从现金向借记卡转变的现象可能有助于犯罪的降低。小偷很难再去偷窃，毕竟没有现金可以被偷了。
