亚洲市场以安静状态结束本周。中国CPI保持平稳，工业生产呈现好转，而7月零售销售仍然变化不大。对此，亚洲股市反应冷淡。日经225指数上涨0.07％，恒生指数上涨0.63％，而上证综指上涨0.31％。
隔夜，美元兑日元和日元交叉盘有所上扬。在纽约市场下滑至95.81后，美元兑日元在东京市场复苏，利用周末前的空头回补测试97.00。在下行路上，期权市场上的买盘见于96.00-25，止损盘见于95.80之前。下一个关键技术水平是95.62（6-7月上扬期间之23.6％的斐波那契水平），然后是93.57（2012年9月至2013年5月反弹期间之61.8％的斐波那契水平兼6月的触底价）。在上行路上，卖盘依然位于96.90-97.00区域。
澳元整合0.9100上方的涨幅，而澳洲联储的货币政策声明提到，近期数据并未减弱在8月6日会议上下调现金利率的空间，经济增长率低于趋势，直至2014年年中。澳元兑美元昨日突破其21日移动均线，在欧洲市场开盘后扩大涨幅至0.9150。卖盘见于0.9200之前，而12-26日MACD指标重返绿色区域。
欧元兑美元昨日在纽约市场触及我们的首个目标价位1.3400，在亚洲市场因欧元兑日元需求旺盛，其仍然在1.3375上方获得良好支撑。昨日，来自主权级交易者和实际货币资金的卖盘见于1.3400-20（6月的高价区间），而买盘于1.3345-50阻力位区间建立。
美元进一步走软明显有利于英镑上涨50个基点至1.5555，而斐波纳契水平1.5531隔夜已从阻力位变为支撑位。英镑兑美元的交易偏见明显是上行。在其他地方，瑞郎兑美元重返6月低价水平，而买盘似乎在1.2300-05阻力位区间上方建立。
本周五的重点将是瑞典7月失业率、法国6月预算余额（年初至今）和工业生产月率和年率、意大利和英国6月欧盟贸易平衡及贸易平衡总额、挪威7月份CPI和PPI月率和年率、意大利7月CPI年率、加拿大7月新屋开工、失业率、就业人数变化、就业参与率以及美国6月批发库存和批发销售月率。
Asia ended the week through a quiet trading session. The Chinese CPI remained stable, the industrial production showed improvement, while the retail sales remained little changed in July. The Asian equity markets saw little action. The Nikkei 225 added 0.07%, Hang Seng advanced 0.63%, while Shanghai’s Composite gained 0.31%.
USDJPY and JPY crosses saw better demand overnight. After having fallen to 95.81 in New York, USDJPY recovered in Tokyo to test 97.00 on short covering pre-weekend. On the downside, bids are seen at 96.00/25 on the option markets, with stops seen sub-0.9580. The next key technical level is 95.62 – Fibonacci 23.6% level on June /July progress, then 93.57 – Fibonacci 61.8% on September 2012/May 2013 rally & June dip. On the topside offers remain at 96.90/97.00 area.
Aussie consolidated gains above 0.9100 while RBA’s Statement of Monetary Policy (SOMP) cited that the recent data had not weakened the scope to cut the cash rate at August 6th meeting and the growth is seen below the trend until mid-2014. AUDUSD crossed above its 21-dayMA yesterday and extended gains to 0.9150 through European opening. Offers are seen pre-0.9200, while the MACD 12-26-day indicator stepped back in the green zone.
EURUSD hit our first target at 1.3400 in New York yesterday, and remained well supported above 1.3375 in Asia with decent demand in EURJPY. Offers from sovereign names and real money funds are seen at 1.3400/20 (June highs), while bids are building at 1.3345/50 resistance zone of yesterday.
The expanding weakness in USD clearly helped the Cable to step 50 bips higher to 1.5555, while 1.5531 fibonacci level has turned support overnight. The bias is clearly on the upside. Else, the Swiss franc is back at June low levels against the US dollar, while bids are seemingly building above 1.2300/05 against euro.
This Friday, the focus will be on Swedish July Unemployment Rate, French June Budget Balance YTD and Industrial Production m/m & y/y, Italian and UK June Trade Balance EU & Total, Norwegian July CPI and PPI m/m & y/y, Italian July CPI y/y, Canadian July housing Starts, Unemployment Rate, Change in Employment and Participation Raze and US June Wholesale Inventories and Wholesale Trade Sales m/m.
