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7月1ARGUMENT

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题目:
The following appeared in a memo from the marketing director of Top Dog Pet Stores.
Five years ago, Fish Emporium started advertising in the magazine Exotic Pets Monthly. Their stores saw sales increase by 15 percent. The three Fish Emporium stores in Gulf City saw an even greater increase than that. Because Top Dog has some of its largest stores in Gulf City, it seems clear that we should start placing our own ads in Exotic Pets Monthly. If we do so, we will be sure to reverse the recent trend of declining sales and making a profit again.


IP属地:中国香港1楼2013-07-01 23:07回复
    In the memo cited, the director of Top Dog Stores argues that the store should start posting ads in Exotic Pets Monthly so that the store would gain more profit. Although it seems like Dog Pet Store would reverse the current declining sales, this statement is brought about with several faults.
    The director includes inadequate information in his claim that Fish Emporium gains 15 percent sales after publicizing ads in the magazine. First, this data is calculated up to five years ago, when it could no longer enlighten any useful reasoning today. Second, business is changing in an incredible speed. A firm used to dominate its part of business could suddenly claim bankruptcy in one month or two. Even though Fish emporium could have arguably increase its sale by 1 5percent, such rising may win no advantage under possible tremendous inflation of the whole economy. Third, the bare number of 15 percent does not indicate precisely the store’s performance because we are not told whether the increase of 15 percent is referring to monetary account or inventory account. If, for example, Fish Emporium has sold 15 percent more fish at only 60 percent unit price, the store is in fact losing its money.
    Even though Fish Emporium verifiably collects 15 percent more profit soon after posting ads in the magazine, the director should not mistakenly conclude the causation of two seemingly attributable random observations. It is highly probable that while signing an advertising contract with the magazine, Fish Emporium, as exemplified above, lowers prices of its products, amount that capable to attract more customers while not significant enough to cause an negative impact on its sales. Such discount could also contribute, more effective than advertising strategy, to inflating sales of Fish Emporium. Thus if this scenario stands, the director of Top Dog Stores should not arbitrarily conduct before further analysis of Fish Emporium’s success.
    Finally, even given that the director could provide solid evidence to justify that the strategy of advertising does result in ameliorating of company’s performance, the assumption that a same strategy
    should be applicable in different companies is in short of legitimacy. Before contracting with Exotic Pets Monthly, the director should implement a comprehensive survey that insightfully investigates his customers’ taste on daily magazine reading. If his customers have never even heard about Exotic Pets Monthly, it would be meaningless to invest any marketing budget in that magazine. Hence the director needs to introduce methods to gain statistical data on his customers' preference before put the ads project into progress.
    In sum, the argument’s context-lacking understanding of data, failure to rule out alternative causation of improvement, and unreasonable conclusion to conduct a certain plan leave it far from flawless.


    IP属地:中国香港2楼2013-07-01 23:14
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      In the memo cited, the director of Top Dog Stores argues that the
      store should start posting ads in Exotic Pets Monthly so that the store would
      gain more profit. Although it seems like Dog Pet Store would reverse the
      current declining sales, this statement is brought about with several faults.
      (There is a slight possibility that the Dog Pet Store will boost
      their sales to reverse current revenue decline, yet several faults are consisted
      in this particular statement.)
      The director
      includes inadequate information in his claim that Fish Emporium gains 15
      percent sales after publicizing ads in the magazine. First, this data is(was)
      calculated up to five years ago, when(which) it could no longer enlighten any
      useful reasoning today. Second, business is changing in an incredible speed. A
      firm used to dominate its part of business could suddenly claim bankruptcy in
      one month or two. Even though Fish emporium could have(x) arguably increase its
      sale by 1 5percent, such rising may win no advantage(太中文化了…) under possible tremendous inflation of the whole economy.
      (Assuming the Fish Emporium is capable to increase its sale by 15
      percent, it certainly can be overlooked under a blueprint of the whole economy
      with a possible tremendous inflation.)
      Third, the bare number of 15 percent does not precisely(moved)
      indicate the store’s performance because we are not
      told(informed) whether the increase of 15 percent is referring to monetary
      account or inventory account.(大吧这里要注意 虽然大吧是会计专业的 但是看文章的人并不一定是 所以每次在用专业知识的时候 尽量写得让别人也能看懂)
      Third, the bare number, which is 15 percent, does not indicate an actual
      performance of the store since it is difficult to infer whether this increasing
      should be considered as revenue or inventory.
      If, for example, Fish Emporium has sold 15 percent more fish at
      only 60 percent unit price, the store is in fact losing its money. (这和上面的论述 monetary account or inventory有关系吗)
      Even though Fish
      Emporium verifiably collects 15 percent more profit soon after posting ads in
      the magazine, the director should not mistakenly conclude the causation of two
      seemingly attributable random observations. It is highly probable that while
      signing an advertising contract with the magazine, Fish Emporium (, as
      exemplified above,) lowers prices of its products, amount that capable to
      attract more customers while not significant enough to cause an negative impact
      on its sales. (need revised…considerably redundant)
      Such discount could (can) also contribute, more effective than
      advertising strategy, to inflating(x not appropriate) sales of Fish Emporium.
      Thus if this scenario stands, the director of Top Dog Stores should not
      arbitrarily conduct (what) before further analysis of Fish Emporium’s success.
      Finally, (even) given that the director could provide solid evidence to justify (that x) the strategy of advertising (, which) (does x positively) result in ameliorating of company’s performance, the assumption (that a same strategy should
      be applicable in different companies is it necessary to have this attributive clause?) is in short of legitimacy. Before contracting with Exotic Pets Monthly, the director should implement a comprehensive survey that insightfully investigates his customers’ taste on daily magazine reading (taste of the content of daily magazine? Or taste of the kind of magazine?). If his customers have never (even) heard about Exotic Pets Monthly, it would be meaningless to invest (any) marketing
      budget(s) in that magazine. Hence the director needs to introduce (other)
      methods to gain statistical data on his customers' preference before put the
      ads project into progress. (Is there any relationship between the
      paragraph and “legitimacy” in the first sentence?)
      In sum, the argument’s context-lacking understanding
      of data (don’t understand….), failure to rule out alternative causation of
      improvement, and unreasonable conclusion to conduct a certain plan(,) leave it
      far from flawless.


      4楼2013-07-02 07:39
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