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ACM:市场正在等待欧洲央行以及希腊私人债权人参与计划的结果

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ACM:市场正在等待欧洲央行以及希腊私人债权人参与计划的结果


1楼2012-03-08 17:15回复
    Risk appetite stabilized in Asian session on the back of higher Asian equities and growing confidence in tonights PSI take-up. In a subdued session, Asia’s regional indices are stronger across the board with Nikkei up 2.01%, the Hang Seng 1.32% and the Shanghai Composite higher by 1.06%. FX positioning was light as the primary focus remains the PSI, as roughly 60% of Greece's outstanding debtholders has agreed to take part in the debt swap tonight. However, Greek media has the number closer to 80% participation. EURUSD attracted light buying, trading up from 1.3135 to 1.3180. We suspect the single currency will consolidate till this afternoon ECB meeting. A vast majority of market participants expect the central bank to hold at 1.00%, so the focus will be on Draghi and accompanying press conference. Specifically, the markets wants to hear Draghi’s views on the second LTRO (but we don’t expect much transparency). Gold edged higher to $1689 pulling commodity currencies with it. On the data front, Australia Feb employment fell -15.4k vs 5k exp, 46.3k prior read while the unemployment rate rose slightly 5.2% vs. 5.1% prior. AUDUSD was bid for most of the session climbing to 1.0550 to 1.0621. In New Zealand, the RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 2.50%, as widely expected. However, the central bank lowered the interest rate projections to reflect the strong NZD. Governor Alan Bollard sounded dovish stated the "the high value of the New Zealand dollar is detrimental to the tradable sector, undermines GDP growth and inhibits rebalancing in the New Zealand economy.” The NZDUSD rallied from 0.8140 to 0.8220 but the reaction was more of a catch up to the broad risk on move the his comments. From Japan Q4 GDP fell -0.2% q/q vs -0.2% exp, -0.6% prior. In addition Jan current account balance -Y437.3 bn vs -Y320.0 bn exp. This current account deficit was the largest on record. While some of the deficit can be attributed to seasonal factors, the diminishing surplus has developed into a clear and concerning trend. We expect Japan to start running a persistent current account deficit, and combined with many of weak fundamentals we are now bracing for a sustained period of JPY weakness. JPY reaction was sharp amplifying the recent weakness. USDJPY rallied to 81.40 while EURJPY charged to 107.27.


    3楼2012-03-08 17:17
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